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Scenarios for the logistics services industry: A Delphi-based analysis for 2025

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  • von der Gracht, Heiko A.
  • Darkow, Inga-Lena

Abstract

The logistics services industry will be significantly affected by future developments throughout the world. Therefore, developing future scenarios is an important basis for long-term strategy development. Nevertheless, research exposes that there is a lack of awareness among logistics researchers and practitioners about future scenarios. In this paper, we apply scenario planning and present the findings of an extensive Delphi-based scenario study on the future of the logistics services industry in the year 2025. The major contribution of our research is the development of probable and unforeseen scenarios of the future which may provide a valuable basis for strategy development in the logistics services industry.

Suggested Citation

  • von der Gracht, Heiko A. & Darkow, Inga-Lena, 2010. "Scenarios for the logistics services industry: A Delphi-based analysis for 2025," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(1), pages 46-59, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:proeco:v:127:y:2010:i:1:p:46-59
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Phelps, R. & Chan, C. & Kapsalis, S. C., 2001. "Does scenario planning affect performance? Two exploratory studies," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 223-232, March.
    2. Bood, Robert & Postma, Theo, 1997. "Strategic learning with scenarios," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 633-647, December.
    3. Bergman, Jukka & Viljainen, Satu & Kassi, Tuomo & Partanen, Jarmo & Laaksonen, Petteri, 2006. "Managing the exploration of new operational and strategic activities using the scenario method--assessing future capabilities in the field of electricity distribution industry," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 46-61, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Engelke, Henning & Mauksch, Stefanie & Darkow, Inga-Lena & von der Gracht, Heiko A., 2015. "Opportunities for social enterprise in Germany — Evidence from an expert survey," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PB), pages 635-646.
    2. repec:eee:proeco:v:191:y:2017:i:c:p:154-169 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Cheng, M.N. & Wong, Jane W.K. & Cheung, C.F. & Leung, K.H., 2016. "A scenario-based roadmapping method for strategic planning and forecasting: A case study in a testing, inspection and certification company," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 44-62.
    4. Linz, Marco, 2012. "Scenarios for the aviation industry: A Delphi-based analysis for 2025," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 28-35.
    5. Winkler, Jens & Kuklinski, Christian Paul Jian-Wei & Moser, Roger, 2015. "Decision making in emerging markets: The Delphi approach's contribution to coping with uncertainty and equivocality," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(5), pages 1118-1126.
    6. Jiang, Ruth & Kleer, Robin & Piller, Frank T., 2017. "Predicting the future of additive manufacturing: A Delphi study on economic and societal implications of 3D printing for 2030," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 84-97.
    7. Hsieh, Ling-Feng & Huang, Yi-Chen, 2011. "New batch construction heuristics to optimise the performance of order picking systems," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(2), pages 618-630, June.
    8. Reefke, Hendrik & Sundaram, David, 2017. "Key themes and research opportunities in sustainable supply chain management – identification and evaluation," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 66(PB), pages 195-211.
    9. Hop, G.E. & Mourits, M.C.M. & Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M. & Saatkamp, H.W., 2014. "Future structural developments in Dutch and German livestock production and implications for contagious livestock disease control," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 95-114.
    10. Keller, Jonas & von der Gracht, Heiko A., 2014. "The influence of information and communication technology (ICT) on future foresight processes — Results from a Delphi survey," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 81-92.
    11. Dinwoodie, John & Landamore, Melanie & Rigot-Muller, Patrick, 2014. "Dry bulk shipping flows to 2050: Delphi perceptions of early career specialists," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 64-75.
    12. Förster, Bernadette & von der Gracht, Heiko, 2014. "Assessing Delphi panel composition for strategic foresight — A comparison of panels based on company-internal and external participants," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 215-229.
    13. Liu, Dehai & Li, Hongyi & Wang, Weiguo & Dong, Yucheng, 2012. "Constructivism scenario evolutionary analysis of zero emission regional planning: A case of Qaidam Circular Economy Pilot Area in China," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 341-356.
    14. Spickermann, Alexander & Zimmermann, Martin & von der Gracht, Heiko A., 2014. "Surface- and deep-level diversity in panel selection — Exploring diversity effects on response behaviour in foresight," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 105-120.
    15. Spickermann, Alexander & Grienitz, Volker & von der Gracht, Heiko A., 2014. "Heading towards a multimodal city of the future?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 201-221.
    16. Dinwoodie, John & Tuck, Sarah & Rigot-Müller, Patrick, 2013. "Maritime oil freight flows to 2050: Delphi perceptions of maritime specialists," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 553-561.
    17. Jonek Kowalska, Izabela, 2015. "Challenges for long-term industry restructuring in the Upper Silesian Coal Basin: What has Polish coal mining achieved and failed from a twenty-year perspective?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 135-149.

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