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Effect of scenario planning on field experts' judgment of long-range investment decisions

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  • Shardul Phadnis
  • Chris Caplice
  • Yossi Sheffi
  • Mahender Singh

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  • Shardul Phadnis & Chris Caplice & Yossi Sheffi & Mahender Singh, 2015. "Effect of scenario planning on field experts' judgment of long-range investment decisions," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(9), pages 1401-1411, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:stratm:v:36:y:2015:i:9:p:1401-1411
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    1. Daniel Kahneman & Dan Lovallo, 1993. "Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(1), pages 17-31, January.
    2. Ulrike Malmendier & Geoffrey Tate, 2005. "CEO Overconfidence and Corporate Investment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2661-2700, December.
    3. Glenn W. Harrison & John A. List, 2004. "Field Experiments," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1009-1055, December.
    4. Phelps, R. & Chan, C. & Kapsalis, S. C., 2001. "Does scenario planning affect performance? Two exploratory studies," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 223-232, March.
    5. Samuelson, William & Zeckhauser, Richard, 1988. "Status Quo Bias in Decision Making," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 7-59, March.
    6. Kathleen M. Eisenhardt & Nathan R. Furr & Christopher B. Bingham, 2010. "CROSSROADS---Microfoundations of Performance: Balancing Efficiency and Flexibility in Dynamic Environments," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 21(6), pages 1263-1273, December.
    7. Glenn W. Harrison & Morten I. Lau & E. Elisabet Rutström, 2007. "Estimating Risk Attitudes in Denmark: A Field Experiment," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 109(2), pages 341-368, June.
    8. Itzhak Ben-David & John R. Graham & Campbell R. Harvey, 2007. "Managerial Overconfidence and Corporate Policies," NBER Working Papers 13711, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. David J. Teece, 2007. "Explicating dynamic capabilities: the nature and microfoundations of (sustainable) enterprise performance," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(13), pages 1319-1350, December.
    10. Meissner, Philip & Wulf, Torsten, 2013. "Cognitive benefits of scenario planning: Its impact on biases and decision quality," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(4), pages 801-814.
    11. Denis A. Grégoire & Pamela S. Barr & Dean A. Shepherd, 2010. "Cognitive Processes of Opportunity Recognition: The Role of Structural Alignment," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 21(2), pages 413-431, April.
    12. Dan Lovallo & Colin Camerer, 1999. "Overconfidence and Excess Entry: An Experimental Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 306-318, March.
    13. Robert M. Grant, 2003. "Strategic planning in a turbulent environment: evidence from the oil majors," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(6), pages 491-517, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Riccardo Vecchiato & Giampiero Favato & Francesco di Maddaloni & Hang Do, 2020. "Foresight, cognition, and long‐term performance: Insights from the automotive industry and opportunities for future research," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(1), March.
    2. Lacroix, Denis & Laurent, Louis & de Menthière, Nicolas & Schmitt, Bertrand & Béthinger, Audrey & David, Bernard & Didier, Christophe & Parent du Châtelet, Jacques, 2019. "Multiple visions of the future and major environmental scenarios," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 93-102.
    3. Crawford, Megan M., 2019. "A comprehensive scenario intervention typology," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    4. Jan Oliver Schwarz & René Rohrbeck & Bernhard Wach, 2020. "Corporate foresight as a microfoundation of dynamic capabilities," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(2), June.
    5. Vecchiato, Riccardo, 2020. "Analogical reasoning, cognition, and the response to technological change: Lessons from mobile communication," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(5).
    6. Marzena Kramarz & Katarzyna Dohn & Edyta Przybylska & Lilla Knop, 2020. "Scenarios for the Development of Multimodal Transport in the TRITIA Cross-Border Area," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-41, August.
    7. Shardul Phadnis & Nitin Joglekar, 2021. "Configuring Supply Chain Dyads for Regulatory Disruptions: A Behavioral Study of Scenarios," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 30(4), pages 1014-1033, April.
    8. Wayland, Rebecca, 2019. "Three senses of paradigm in scenario methodology: A preliminary framework and systematic approach for using intuitive logics scenarios to change mental models and improve strategic decision-making in ," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 504-516.
    9. Filippo Zanin & Eugenio Comuzzi, 2019. "Scenarizzazione e pianificazione strategica nei contesti complessi," MANAGEMENT CONTROL, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2019(1 suppl.), pages 95-120.
    10. James Derbyshire & Mandeep Dhami & Ian Belton & Dilek Önkal, 2023. "The value of experiments in futures and foresight science as illustrated by the case of scenario planning," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(2), June.
    11. Shardul S. Phadnis, 2023. "Considering field factors to enhance external validity of scenario planning experiments: A commentary on Derbyshire et al. (2022)," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(2), June.
    12. Shardul S. Phadnis, 2019. "Effectiveness of Delphi‐ and scenario planning‐like processes in enabling organizational adaptation: A simulation‐based comparison," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(2), June.
    13. Shardul Sharad Phadnis & Inga‐Lena Darkow, 2021. "Scenario planning as a strategy process to foster supply chain adaptability: theoretical framework and longitudinal case," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(2), June.
    14. Mark P. Healey & Gerard P. Hodgkinson, 2024. "Overcoming strategic persistence: Effects of multiple scenario analysis on strategic reorientation," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(8), pages 1423-1445, August.

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