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Myths of the future and scenario archetypes

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  • Boschetti, Fabio
  • Price, Jennifer
  • Walker, Iain

Abstract

We employ tools from the social cognition and cultural theory literatures to explore images, concerns, expectations, and attitudes towards the future among the general public. An online survey of 950 Australian citizens was conducted to identify five distinct views of the future. These myths of the future are ‘social crisis’, ‘eco-crisis’, ‘techno-optimism’, ‘power and economic inequality’, and ‘social transformation’. We discuss how these myths relate to the scenario archetypes as commonly employed in foresight literature. This analysis reveals how psychological and cognitive considerations may contribute to the literature and could be incorporated in the running of foresight exercises. Among the 5 myths, techno-optimism describes beliefs that science and technology are likely to create innovations that can improve our quality of life. It provides a firm anchor between scenario archetypes, myths of the future, and the STEEP (social, technological, economic, environmental, and political) framework, by holding a similar meaning in all three settings. Our analysis also elucidates how attitudes towards technological development are not value-free and are influenced by beliefs regarding how society and the environment should be managed, and to what extent technology itself can be a positive or negative force in this management.

Suggested Citation

  • Boschetti, Fabio & Price, Jennifer & Walker, Iain, 2016. "Myths of the future and scenario archetypes," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 76-85.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:111:y:2016:i:c:p:76-85
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2016.06.009
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    Cited by:

    1. Ramírez-Correa, Patricio & Grandón, Elizabeth E. & Rondán-Cataluña, F. Javier, 2020. "Users segmentation based on the Technological Readiness Adoption Index in emerging countries: The case of Chile," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    2. Minkkinen, Matti, 2019. "The anatomy of plausible futures in policy processes: Comparing the cases of data protection and comprehensive security," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 172-180.
    3. Luoma, Päivi & Penttinen, Esko & Tapio, Petri & Toppinen, Anne, 2022. "Future images of data in circular economy for textiles," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    4. Alessandro Fergnani & Mike Jackson, 2019. "Extracting scenario archetypes: A quantitative text analysis of documents about the future," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(2), June.
    5. Heiko A. von der Gracht, 2022. "What's luck got to do with it? Commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021)," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(1), March.
    6. Crawford, Megan M., 2019. "A comprehensive scenario intervention typology," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    7. Heiko A. von der Gracht, 2020. "Mechanics of the future: Commentary on Schoemaker 2020," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(3-4), September.
    8. Navarro-Ligero, Miguel L. & Valenzuela-Montes, Luis Miguel, 2022. "Scenario archetypes in urban transport planning: Insights from the implementation of LRT systems," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 152-164.
    9. Matti Minkkinen, 2021. "Rigor and diversity in the futures field: A commentary on Fergnani and Chermack 2021," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(3-4), September.
    10. Zeng, Michael A. & Koller, Hans & Jahn, Reimo, 2019. "Open radar groups: The integration of online communities into open foresight processes," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 204-217.
    11. Camille Jahel & Robin Bourgeois & Denis Pesche & Marie de Lattre‐Gasquet & Etienne Delay, 2021. "Has the COVID‐19 crisis changed our relationship to the future?," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(2), June.

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