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A protocol to develop Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture

Author

Listed:
  • Hermine Mitter

    (BOKU - Universität für Bodenkultur Wien = University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences [Vienne, Autriche])

  • Anja-K Techene

    (ZALF - Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research)

  • Franz Sinabell

    (Austrian Institute of Economic Research)

  • Katharina Helming

    (ZALF - Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research)

  • Kasper Kok

    (WUR - Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen])

  • Jörg A Priess

    (UFZ - Helmholtz Zentrum für Umweltforschung = Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research)

  • Erwin Schmid

    (BOKU - Universität für Bodenkultur Wien = University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences [Vienne, Autriche])

  • Benjamin L. Bodirsky

    (PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • Ian Holman

    (Cranfield University)

  • Heikki Lehtonen

    (LUKE - Natural Resources Institute Finland)

  • Adrian Leip

    (SSI - Dokuchaev Soil Science Institute - Russian Academy of Agricultural Sciences)

  • Chantal Le Mouël

    (SMART-LERECO - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - AGROCAMPUS OUEST)

  • Erik Mathijs

    (Katholieke Universiteit Leuven)

  • Bano Mehdi

    (BOKU - Universität für Bodenkultur Wien = University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences [Vienne, Autriche])

  • Melania Michetti

    (CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici [Bologna])

  • Klaus Mittenzwei

    (NIBIO - Norsk institutt for bioøkonomi=Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research)

  • Olivier Mora

    (DEPE - Délégation à l'Expertise scientifique collective, à la Prospective et aux Etudes - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique)

  • Pytrik Reidsma

    (Plant Production Systems Group - WUR - Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen])

  • Rüdiger Schaldach

    (University of Kassel)

  • Martin Schönhart

    (BOKU - Universität für Bodenkultur Wien = University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences [Vienne, Autriche])

Abstract

Moving towards a more sustainable future requires concerted actions, particularly in the context of global climate change. Integrated assessments of agricultural systems (IAAS) are considered valuable tools to provide sound information for policy and decision-making. IAAS use storylines to define socio-economic and environ-mental framework assumptions. While a set of qualitative global storylines, known as the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), is available to inform integrated assessments at large scales, their spatial resolution and scope is insufficient for regional studies in agriculture. We present a protocol to operationalize the development of Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture – Eur-Agri-SSPs – to support IAAS. The proposed design of the storyline development process is based on six quality criteria: plausibility, vertical and horizontal consis-tency, salience, legitimacy, richness and creativity. Trade-offs between these criteria may occur. The process is science-driven and iterative to enhance plausibility and horizontal consistency. A nested approach is suggested to link storylines across scales while maintaining vertical consistency. Plausibility, legitimacy, salience, richness and creativity shall be stimulated in a participatory and interdisciplinary storyline development process. The quality criteria and process design requirements are combined in the protocol to increase conceptual and methodological transparency. The protocol specifies nine working steps. For each step, suitable methods are proposed and the intended level and format of stakeholder engagement are discussed. A key methodological challenge is to link global SSPs with regional perspectives provided by the stakeholders, while maintaining vertical consistency and stakeholder buy-in. We conclude that the protocol facilitates systematic development and evaluation of storylines, which can be transferred to other regions, sectors and scales and supports inter- comparisons of IAAS.

Suggested Citation

  • Hermine Mitter & Anja-K Techene & Franz Sinabell & Katharina Helming & Kasper Kok & Jörg A Priess & Erwin Schmid & Benjamin L. Bodirsky & Ian Holman & Heikki Lehtonen & Adrian Leip & Chantal Le Mouël , 2019. "A protocol to develop Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture," Post-Print hal-02619037, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02619037
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.109701
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02619037v1
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    Cited by:

    1. Ehlers, Melf-Hinrich & Finger, Robert & El Benni, Nadja & Gocht, Alexander & Sørensen, Claus Aage Grøn & Gusset, Markus & Pfeifer, Catherine & Poppe, Krijn & Regan, Áine & Rose, David Christian & Wolf, 2022. "Scenarios for European agricultural policymaking in the era of digitalisation," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    2. Schmidt, J. & Mitter, H. & Baumann, M. & Boza-Kiss, B. & Huppmann, D. & Wehrle, S. & Zwieb, L. & Klingler, M., 2025. "Need for speed: Co-creating scenarios for climate neutral energy systems in Austria in 2040," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    3. Wepner, Beatrix & Neuberger, Sabine & Hörlesberger, Marianne & Molin, Eva Maria & Lampert, Jasmin & Koch, Hanna, 2025. "How can digitalisation support transformation towards sustainable agri-food systems? Scenario development in Lower Austria," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    4. Hunecke, Claudia, 2022. "The FSEC-SSPs: Shared Socio-economic Pathways for global agricultural production and their implications for on-farm management decisions," 96th Annual Conference, April 4-6, 2022, K U Leuven, Belgium 321222, Agricultural Economics Society - AES.
    5. Fatimata Bintou Diarra & Mathieu Ouédraogo & Robert B. Zougmoré & Samuel Tetteh Partey & Prosper Houessionon & Amos Mensah, 2021. "Are perception and adaptation to climate variability and change of cowpea growers in Mali gender differentiated?," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(9), pages 13854-13870, September.
    6. Karner, Katrin & Schönhart, Martin & Sinabell, Franz & Mitter, Hermine, 2022. "Resilienz des österreichischen Agrar- und Ernährungssystems – Erkenntnisse aus den AT-Agri-SSPs," 62nd Annual Conference, Stuttgart, Germany, September 7-9, 2022 329605, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).

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