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Scenario orientation and use to support strategy development

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  • O'Brien, Frances A.
  • Meadows, Maureen

Abstract

Scenario planning is one of the tools consistently reported as being used by executives to support their business development. A scenario planning project typically consists of three phases — preparation, development and use. This paper focuses on the third phase, where the scenarios that have been developed are put to their intended use in the context of developing strategy. Significant problems have been experienced as scenario projects move into this critical phase, perhaps due to a failure to link scenario development with strategy creation and execution efforts. These issues are explored via a case study of a large UK organisation operating in the transport sector, where a scenario-based strategy development exercise was used to support the leadership development of senior managers. We propose that a scenario orientation phase is a valuable missing link in many scenario projects, which can establish a bridge between scenario development and scenario use. Scenario orientation is a process of familiarisation with the scenarios that involves understanding their nature in some detail. This can be a crucial step, particularly if there is a significant time lapse between scenario development and scenario use, or if the people using the scenarios were not involved in their development. Without a good orientation to the scenarios, participants in a scenario planning exercise may be poor at the subsequent activities that require their explicit use.

Suggested Citation

  • O'Brien, Frances A. & Meadows, Maureen, 2013. "Scenario orientation and use to support strategy development," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(4), pages 643-656.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:80:y:2013:i:4:p:643-656
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2012.06.006
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    Cited by:

    1. Siebelink, Remco & Halman, Johannes I.M. & Hofman, Erwin, 2016. "Scenario-Driven Roadmapping to cope with uncertainty: Its application in the construction industry," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 226-238.
    2. Cheng, M.N. & Wong, Jane W.K. & Cheung, C.F. & Leung, K.H., 2016. "A scenario-based roadmapping method for strategic planning and forecasting: A case study in a testing, inspection and certification company," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 44-62.
    3. Bouhalleb, Arafet & Tapinos, Efstathios, 2023. "The impact of scenario planning on entrepreneurial orientation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    4. Kunc, Martin & O'Brien, Frances A., 2017. "Exploring the development of a methodology for scenario use: Combining scenario and resource mapping approaches," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 150-159.
    5. Wright, George & Cairns, George & O'Brien, Frances A. & Goodwin, Paul, 2019. "Scenario analysis to support decision making in addressing wicked problems: Pitfalls and potential," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 278(1), pages 3-19.
    6. Nicholas J. Rowland & Matthew J. Spaniol, 2021. "On inquiry in futures and foresight science," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(1), March.
    7. Lehr, Thomas & Lorenz, Ullrich & Willert, Markus & Rohrbeck, René, 2017. "Scenario-based strategizing: Advancing the applicability in strategists' teams," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 214-224.
    8. Metz, Ashley & Hartley, Paul, 2020. "Scenario development as valuation: Opportunities for reflexivity," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    9. MacKay, R. Bradley & Stoyanova, Veselina, 2017. "Scenario planning with a sociological eye: Augmenting the intuitive logics approach to understanding the Future of Scotland and the UK," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 88-100.
    10. Gary Bowman & R. Bradley MacKay, 2020. "Scenario planning as strategic activity: A practice‐orientated approach," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(3-4), September.
    11. Kayser, Victoria & Shala, Erduana, 2020. "Scenario development using web mining for outlining technology futures," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    12. Tiberius, Victor & Siglow, Caroline & Sendra-García, Javier, 2020. "Scenarios in business and management: The current stock and research opportunities," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 235-242.
    13. Ram, Camelia, 2020. "Scenario presentation and scenario generation in multi-criteria assessments: An exploratory study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    14. Schwarz, Jan Oliver & Kroehl, Rixa & von der Gracht, Heiko A., 2014. "Novels and novelty in trend research — Using novels to perceive weak signals and transfer frames of reference," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 66-73.
    15. Matthew J. Spaniol & Nicholas J. Rowland, 2023. "AI‐assisted scenario generation for strategic planning," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(2), June.
    16. Rowland, Nicholas J. & Spaniol, Matthew J., 2017. "Social foundation of scenario planning," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 6-15.
    17. Kayser, Victoria & Blind, Knut, 2017. "Extending the knowledge base of foresight: The contribution of text mining," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 208-215.
    18. Ramboarison-Lalao, Lovanirina & Gannouni, Kais, 2019. "Liberated firm, a leverage of well-being and technological change? A prospective study based on the scenario method," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 129-139.
    19. Favato, Giampiero & Vecchiato, Riccardo, 2017. "Embedding real options in scenario planning: A new methodological approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 135-149.
    20. Gattringer, Regina & Wiener, Melanie, 2020. "Key factors in the start-up phase of collaborative foresight," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    21. O'Brien, Frances A. & Meadows, Maureen & Griffiths, Sam, 2017. "Serialisation and the use of Twitter: Keeping the conversation alive in public policy scenario projects," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 26-40.
    22. Crawford, Megan M. & Wright, George, 2022. "The value of mass-produced COVID-19 scenarios: A quality evaluation of development processes and scenario content," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    23. Sarkki, Simo & Pihlajamäki, Mia, 2019. "Baltic herring for food: Shades of grey in how backcasting recommendations work across exploratory scenarios," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 200-209.
    24. Hussain, M. & Tapinos, E. & Knight, L., 2017. "Scenario-driven roadmapping for technology foresight," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 160-177.
    25. Meadows, Maureen & O'Brien, Frances A., 2020. "The use of scenarios in developing strategy: An analysis of conversation and video data," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).

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