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AI‐assisted scenario generation for strategic planning

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  • Matthew J. Spaniol
  • Nicholas J. Rowland

Abstract

This “reflections from practice” piece explores some of the implications of emerging, artificially intelligent tools for the futures and foresight prac‐ademic community. The authors provide background on these emerging, artificially intelligent tools, and explore, with special emphasis on scenarios, a specific tool named “Chat Generative Pre‐trained Transformer” (hereafter, ChatGPT). The authors examine the utility of scenarios generated by artificial intelligence (AI) and explore whether or not the futures and foresight prac‐ademic community should selectively embrace advances in AI to assist in the generation of scenarios. In particular, the authors will consider (1) the utility of using scenarios generated completely by AI, (2) whether what is produced, in fact, constitute scenarios, based on conventional definitions, and (3) assess the utility of using AI to assist in the production of scenarios. At this point in time, artificially intelligent tools can now generate numerous scenarios on seemingly any topic at essentially zero cost to the user. Still, the authors insist that the utility of those scenarios is largely predicated on the user's ability to coax the appropriate “raw material” from the artificially intelligent bot, which implicates, the authors contend, that such bots can usefully provide base material for the development of scenarios but are unlikely to fully eclipse scenarists in the production of scenarios. Additionally, the authors recommend that the futures and foresight prac‐ademic community pay especially close attention to artificially intelligent tools for novel insights with regard to the differences in human cognition and, in this case, the logic of large language model outputs.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew J. Spaniol & Nicholas J. Rowland, 2023. "AI‐assisted scenario generation for strategic planning," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(2), June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:fufsci:v:5:y:2023:i:2:n:e148
    DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.148
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. O'Brien, Frances A. & Meadows, Maureen, 2013. "Scenario orientation and use to support strategy development," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(4), pages 643-656.
    2. Nicholas J. Rowland & Matthew J. Spaniol, 2023. "On replication in science: Commentary on Derbyshire et al. (2022)," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(2), June.
    3. Khakee, A., 1991. "Scenario construction for urban planning," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 459-469.
    4. Rowland, Nicholas J. & Spaniol, Matthew J., 2017. "Social foundation of scenario planning," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 6-15.
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