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The use of scenarios in developing strategy: An analysis of conversation and video data

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  • Meadows, Maureen
  • O'Brien, Frances A.

Abstract

Surveys of managers report that strategy tools such as scenarios are widely used in practice. However, such surveys of practice typically focus on reporting which tools are used, rather than exploring how they are actually used. This paper examines the use of scenarios as a tool to support strategy development. We highlight a number of roles (technical, analytical and social) that scenarios play in strategy exercises, and offer insights into the use of scenarios in practice, illustrating that they are used throughout the strategy development process rather than simply at the start. Our approach to data analysis, based on analyses of both audio and visual material from a strategy workshop, sheds light on enhanced approaches to coding both conversation and video data within strategy research.

Suggested Citation

  • Meadows, Maureen & O'Brien, Frances A., 2020. "The use of scenarios in developing strategy: An analysis of conversation and video data," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:158:y:2020:i:c:s0040162520309732
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120147
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kunc, Martin & O'Brien, Frances A., 2017. "Exploring the development of a methodology for scenario use: Combining scenario and resource mapping approaches," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 150-159.
    2. Favato, Giampiero & Vecchiato, Riccardo, 2017. "Embedding real options in scenario planning: A new methodological approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 135-149.
    3. Dufva, Mikko & Ahlqvist, Toni, 2015. "Knowledge creation dynamics in foresight: A knowledge typology and exploratory method to analyse foresight workshops," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 251-268.
    4. Hussain, M. & Tapinos, E. & Knight, L., 2017. "Scenario-driven roadmapping for technology foresight," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 160-177.
    5. Lehr, Thomas & Lorenz, Ullrich & Willert, Markus & Rohrbeck, René, 2017. "Scenario-based strategizing: Advancing the applicability in strategists' teams," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 214-224.
    6. Cairns, George & Ahmed, Iftekhar & Mullett, Jane & Wright, George, 2013. "Scenario method and stakeholder engagement: Critical reflections on a climate change scenarios case study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 1-10.
    7. O'Brien, Frances A. & Meadows, Maureen, 2013. "Scenario orientation and use to support strategy development," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(4), pages 643-656.
    8. Stenfors, Sari & Tanner, Leena & Syrjanen, Mikko & Seppala, Tomi & Haapalinna, Ilkka, 2007. "Executive views concerning decision support tools," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 181(2), pages 929-938, September.
    9. Crawford, Megan M., 2019. "A comprehensive scenario intervention typology," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
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    2. Bouhalleb, Arafet & Tapinos, Efstathios, 2023. "The impact of scenario planning on entrepreneurial orientation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).

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