IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v187y2023ics0040162522007120.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of scenario planning on entrepreneurial orientation

Author

Listed:
  • Bouhalleb, Arafet
  • Tapinos, Efstathios

Abstract

It is well established in the foresight literature that strategy tools, such as scenario planning, have multiple reported outcomes. Much of the existing research focuses on direct outcomes, such as identifying uncertainties and developing strategies. While indirect outcomes, such as improving organisational learning and culture, are acknowledged, the existing literature provides limited empirical evidence. This paper focuses on an indirect outcome of scenario planning that has largely been ignored: entrepreneurial orientation. This research investigates whether the use of scenario planning affects key dimensions of entrepreneurial orientation among organisations that engage with it. Our model is tested through a series of hypotheses, taking advantage of a unique dataset of 133 companies from the health sector in France. This study uses a partial least squares (PLS) analysis; the findings show that scenario planning promotes risk-taking and proactive behaviour, but does not affect the innovativeness of organisations that use it. Based on these findings, we theorise about the impact of scenario planning on the entrepreneurial behaviour of organisations and discuss the practical implications of this research.

Suggested Citation

  • Bouhalleb, Arafet & Tapinos, Efstathios, 2023. "The impact of scenario planning on entrepreneurial orientation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:187:y:2023:i:c:s0040162522007120
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2022.122191
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162522007120
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2022.122191?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guerrero, Maribel & Urbano, David, 2017. "The impact of Triple Helix agents on entrepreneurial innovations' performance: An inside look at enterprises located in an emerging economy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 294-309.
    2. Wright, George & O'Brien, Frances & Meadows, Maureen & Tapinos, Efstathios & Pyper, Neil, 2020. "Scenario planning and foresight: Advancing theory and improving practice," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    3. Eero Vaara & Richard Whittington, 2012. "Strategy as practice : Taking Social Practices Seriously," Post-Print hal-02276672, HAL.
    4. Danny Miller & Peter H. Friesen, 1982. "Innovation in conservative and entrepreneurial firms: Two models of strategic momentum," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(1), pages 1-25, January.
    5. Lang, Trudi & Ramírez, Rafael, 2017. "Building new social capital with scenario planning," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 51-65.
    6. Wright, George & Bradfield, Ron & Cairns, George, 2013. "Does the intuitive logics method – and its recent enhancements – produce “effective” scenarios?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(4), pages 631-642.
    7. Jeffrey G. Covin & Kimberly M. Green & Dennis P. Slevin, 2006. "Strategic Process Effects on the Entrepreneurial Orientation–Sales Growth Rate Relationship," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 30(1), pages 57-81, January.
    8. von der Gracht, Heiko A. & Stillings, Christopher, 2013. "An innovation-focused scenario process — A case from the materials producing industry," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(4), pages 599-610.
    9. Jeffrey G. Covin & William J. Wales, 2012. "The Measurement of Entrepreneurial Orientation," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 36(4), pages 677-702, July.
    10. Sarah Kaplan, 2008. "Framing Contests: Strategy Making Under Uncertainty," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 19(5), pages 729-752, October.
    11. Anderson, Brian S. & Eshima, Yoshihiro, 2013. "The influence of firm age and intangible resources on the relationship between entrepreneurial orientation and firm growth among Japanese SMEs," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 413-429.
    12. Danny Miller, 1983. "The Correlates of Entrepreneurship in Three Types of Firms," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(7), pages 770-791, July.
    13. Rodrigo-Alarcón, Job & García-Villaverde, Pedro M. & Ruiz-Ortega, María J. & Parra-Requena, Gloria, 2018. "From social capital to entrepreneurial orientation: The mediating role of dynamic capabilities," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 195-209.
    14. Meissner, Philip & Wulf, Torsten, 2013. "Cognitive benefits of scenario planning: Its impact on biases and decision quality," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(4), pages 801-814.
    15. Heger, Tobias & Rohrbeck, René, 2012. "Strategic foresight for collaborative exploration of new business fields," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(5), pages 819-831.
    16. De Smedt, Peter & Borch, Kristian & Fuller, Ted, 2013. "Future scenarios to inspire innovation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 432-443.
    17. O'Brien, Frances A. & Meadows, Maureen, 2013. "Scenario orientation and use to support strategy development," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(4), pages 643-656.
    18. William E. Baker & James M. Sinkula, 2009. "The Complementary Effects of Market Orientation and Entrepreneurial Orientation on Profitability in Small Businesses," Journal of Small Business Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(4), pages 443-464, October.
    19. Jeffrey G. Covin & William J. Wales, 2019. "Crafting High-Impact Entrepreneurial Orientation Research: Some Suggested Guidelines," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 43(1), pages 3-18, January.
    20. Chahal, Hardeep & Gupta, Mahesh & Lonial, Subhash & Raina, Swati, 2019. "Operational flexibility-entrepreneurial orientation relationship: Effects and consequences," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 154-167.
    21. Bootz, Jean-Philippe & Monti, Régine & Durance, Philippe & Pacini, Vincent & Chapuy, Pierre, 2019. "The links between French school of foresight and organizational learning: An assessment of developments in the last ten years," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 92-104.
    22. Danny Miller, 2011. "Miller (1983) Revisited: A Reflection on EO Research and Some Suggestions for the Future," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 35(5), pages 873-894, September.
    23. Jean-Philippe Bootz & Régine Monti & Philippe Durance & Vincent Pacini & Pierre Chapuy, 2019. "The links between French school of foresight and organizational learning: An assessment of developments in the last ten years," Post-Print hal-02772738, HAL.
    24. Green, Kimberly M. & Covin, Jeffrey G. & Slevin, Dennis P., 2008. "Exploring the relationship between strategic reactiveness and entrepreneurial orientation: The role of structure-style fit," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 356-383, May.
    25. Derbyshire, James & Giovannetti, Emanuele, 2017. "Understanding the failure to understand New Product Development failures: Mitigating the uncertainty associated with innovating new products by combining scenario planning and forecasting," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 334-344.
    26. Paul Goodwin & George Wright, 2001. "Enhancing Strategy Evaluation in Scenario Planning: a Role for Decision Analysis," Journal of Management Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1), pages 1-16, January.
    27. Gary T. Burke & Carola Wolf, 2021. "The Process Affordances of Strategy Toolmaking when Addressing Wicked Problems," Journal of Management Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 359-388, March.
    28. Schoemaker, Paul J.H. & Day, George S. & Snyder, Scott A., 2013. "Integrating organizational networks, weak signals, strategic radars and scenario planning," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(4), pages 815-824.
    29. Phelps, R. & Chan, C. & Kapsalis, S. C., 2001. "Does scenario planning affect performance? Two exploratory studies," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 223-232, March.
    30. Paula Jarzabkowski & Sarah Kaplan, 2015. "Strategy tools-in-use: A framework for understanding “technologies of rationality” in practice," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 537-558, April.
    31. Burt, George & Nair, Anup Karath, 2020. "Rigidities of imagination in scenario planning: Strategic foresight through ‘Unlearning’," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    32. Johan Wiklund, 1999. "The Sustainability of the Entrepreneurial Orientation—Performance Relationship," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 24(1), pages 37-48, October.
    33. Jiang, Xu & Liu, Heng & Fey, Carl & Jiang, Feifei, 2018. "Entrepreneurial orientation, network resource acquisition, and firm performance: A network approach," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 46-57.
    34. Ramirez, R. & Bhatti, Y. & Tapinos, E., 2020. "Exploring how experience and learning curves decrease the time invested in scenario planning interventions," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    35. Hussain, M. & Tapinos, E. & Knight, L., 2017. "Scenario-driven roadmapping for technology foresight," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 160-177.
    36. Ortiz de Guinea, Ana & Raymond, Louis, 2020. "Enabling innovation in the face of uncertainty through IT ambidexterity: A fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis of industrial service SMEs," International Journal of Information Management, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 244-260.
    37. Eero Vaara & Richard Whittington, 2012. "Strategy as practice : Taking Social Practices Seriously," Post-Print hal-02312709, HAL.
    38. Petrakis, Panagiotis E. & Kostis, Pantelis C. & Kafka, Kyriaki I., 2016. "Secular stagnation, faltering innovation, and high uncertainty: New-era entrepreneurship appraisal using knowledge-based thinking," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(5), pages 1909-1913.
    39. García-Villaverde, Pedro M. & Rodrigo-Alarcón, Job & Parra-Requena, Gloria & Ruiz-Ortega, María José, 2018. "Technological dynamism and entrepreneurial orientation: The heterogeneous effects of social capital," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 51-64.
    40. Lehr, Thomas & Lorenz, Ullrich & Willert, Markus & Rohrbeck, René, 2017. "Scenario-based strategizing: Advancing the applicability in strategists' teams," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 214-224.
    41. Derbyshire, James & Wright, George, 2017. "Augmenting the intuitive logics scenario planning method for a more comprehensive analysis of causation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 254-266.
    42. Rengarajan, Srinath & Moser, Roger & Narayanamurthy, Gopalakrishnan, 2021. "Strategy tools in dynamic environments – An expert-panel study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    43. Honig, Benson & Samuelsson, Mikael, 2021. "Business planning by intrapreneurs and entrepreneurs under environmental uncertainty and institutional pressure," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    44. Worthington, William J. & Collins, Jamie D. & Hitt, Michael A., 2009. "Beyond risk mitigation: Enhancing corporate innovation with scenario planning," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 441-450, September.
    45. Meadows, Maureen & O'Brien, Frances A., 2020. "The use of scenarios in developing strategy: An analysis of conversation and video data," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    46. Wiklund, Johan & Shepherd, Dean, 2005. "Entrepreneurial orientation and small business performance: a configurational approach," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 71-91, January.
    47. Roper, Stephen & Tapinos, Efstathios, 2016. "Taking risks in the face of uncertainty: An exploratory analysis of green innovation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 357-363.
    48. Vaznyte, Egle & Andries, Petra, 2019. "Entrepreneurial orientation and start-ups' external financing," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 439-458.
    49. Metz, Ashley & Hartley, Paul, 2020. "Scenario development as valuation: Opportunities for reflexivity," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    50. Shan, Peng & Song, Michael & Ju, Xiaofeng, 2016. "Entrepreneurial orientation and performance: Is innovation speed a missing link?," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 683-690.
    51. Jeffrey G. Covin & Dennis P. Slevin, 1991. "A Conceptual Model of Entrepreneurship as Firm Behavior," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 16(1), pages 7-26, October.
    52. R. Duane Ireland & Jeffrey G. Covin & Donald F. Kuratko, 2009. "Conceptualizing Corporate Entrepreneurship Strategy," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 33(1), pages 19-46, January.
    53. Jarzabkowski, Paula & Paul Spee, Andreas & Smets, Michael, 2013. "Material artifacts: Practices for doing strategy with ‘stuff’," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 41-54.
    54. Brian S. Anderson & Patrick M. Kreiser & Donald F. Kuratko & Jeffrey S. Hornsby & Yoshihiro Eshima, 2015. "Reconceptualizing entrepreneurial orientation," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(10), pages 1579-1596, October.
    55. Arafet Bouhalleb & Ali Smida, 2018. "Scenario planning: An investigation of the construct and its measurement," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(4), pages 489-505, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Efstathios Tapinos & Graham Leask & Mike Brown, 2023. "Perceived environmental turbulence and corporate strategy: The case of the UK recession," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(3-4), September.
    2. Areej Hijazin & Javier Tamayo-Torres & Nawras Nusairat, 2023. "Moderating the Synergies between Business Intelligence and Strategic Foresight: Navigating Uncertainty for Future Success through Knowledge Management," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-17, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wales, William J. & Kraus, Sascha & Filser, Matthias & Stöckmann, Christoph & Covin, Jeffrey G., 2021. "The status quo of research on entrepreneurial orientation: Conversational landmarks and theoretical scaffolding," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 564-577.
    2. Kohtamäki, Marko & Heimonen, Jesse & Sjödin, David & Heikkilä, Vili, 2020. "Strategic agility in innovation: Unpacking the interaction between entrepreneurial orientation and absorptive capacity by using practice theory," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 12-25.
    3. Santos, Gina & Marques, Carla Susana & Ferreira, João J.M., 2020. "Passion and perseverance as two new dimensions of an Individual Entrepreneurial Orientation scale," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 190-199.
    4. Hunt, Richard A., 2021. "Entrepreneurial orientation and the fate of corporate acquisitions," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 241-255.
    5. Katharina Fellnhofer, 2019. "The Complementary Effects Of Firms’ And Team Leaders’ Entrepreneurial Orientation On Innovation Success And Performance," International Journal of Innovation Management (ijim), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 23(05), pages 1-32, June.
    6. Antonio Rodríguez-Peña, 2021. "Assessing the impact of corporate entrepreneurship in the financial performance of subsidiaries of Colombian business groups: under environmental dynamism moderation," Journal of Innovation and Entrepreneurship, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 1-27, December.
    7. Marinković, Milan & Al-Tabbaa, Omar & Khan, Zaheer & Wu, Jie, 2022. "Corporate foresight: A systematic literature review and future research trajectories," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 289-311.
    8. Lu, Jinfeng & Dimov, Dimo, 2023. "A system dynamics modelling of entrepreneurship and growth within firms," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 38(3).
    9. Schweiger, & Baldauf,, 2016. "„Entrepreneurial Orientation“: Eine Bestandsaufnahme der Konstruktschärfe," Die Unternehmung - Swiss Journal of Business Research and Practice, Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft mbH & Co. KG, vol. 70(4), pages 423-447.
    10. Tiberius, Victor & Siglow, Caroline & Sendra-García, Javier, 2020. "Scenarios in business and management: The current stock and research opportunities," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 235-242.
    11. Zhaoyang Guo & Wei Jiang, 2020. "Risk-taking for entrepreneurial new entry: risk-taking dimensions and contingencies," International Entrepreneurship and Management Journal, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 739-781, June.
    12. Kollmann, Tobias & Stöckmann, Christoph & Niemand, Thomas & Hensellek, Simon & de Cruppe, Katharina, 2021. "A configurational approach to entrepreneurial orientation and cooperation explaining product/service innovation in digital vs. non-digital startups," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 508-519.
    13. Gary Bowman & R. Bradley MacKay, 2020. "Scenario planning as strategic activity: A practice‐orientated approach," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(3-4), September.
    14. Vishal K. Gupta & William J. Wales, 2017. "Assessing Organisational Performance Within Entrepreneurial Orientation Research: Where Have We Been and Where Can We Go from Here?," Journal of Entrepreneurship and Innovation in Emerging Economies, Entrepreneurship Development Institute of India, vol. 26(1), pages 51-76, March.
    15. William Wales & Erik Monsen & Alexander McKelvie, 2011. "The Organizational Pervasiveness of Entrepreneurial Orientation," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 35(5), pages 895-923, September.
    16. Vishal Gupta & Sandra C. Mortal & Tina Yang, 2018. "Entrepreneurial orientation and firm value: Does managerial discretion play a role?," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 1-26, January.
    17. Patrick Kreiser & Louis Marino & Donald Kuratko & K. Weaver, 2013. "Disaggregating entrepreneurial orientation: the non-linear impact of innovativeness, proactiveness and risk-taking on SME performance," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 273-291, February.
    18. Lin Wang & Murad Ali & Hyun Jeong Kim & Sareum Lee & Felipe Hernández Perlines, 2021. "Individual entrepreneurial orientation, value congruence, and individual outcomes: Does the institutional entrepreneurial environment matter?," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(5), pages 2293-2312, July.
    19. Jan Lampe & Priscilla Sarai Kraft & Andreas Bausch, 2020. "Mapping the Field of Research on Entrepreneurial Organizations (1937–2016): A Bibliometric Analysis and Research Agenda," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 44(4), pages 784-816, July.
    20. Tobias Kollmann & Christoph Stöckmann, 2014. "Filling the Entrepreneurial Orientation–Performance Gap: The Mediating Effects of Exploratory and Exploitative Innovations," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 38(5), pages 1001-1026, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:187:y:2023:i:c:s0040162522007120. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.