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Scenarios and early warnings as dynamic capabilities to frame managerial attention

Author

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  • Ramírez, Rafael
  • Österman, Riku
  • Grönquist, Daniel

Abstract

This paper proposes that relating scenario planning with early warning scanning provides firms with synergic capabilities that help frame top management attention on possible future contexts and how they might unfold. The research is based on two case studies and makes two scholarly contributions: it discusses cognitive aspects in sensing by analyzing scenario planning and early warning scanning as dynamic capabilities; and it provides an exploration of the synergies between both. The paper may also help reflective scenario planners and competitive intelligence professionals to better connect their work.

Suggested Citation

  • Ramírez, Rafael & Österman, Riku & Grönquist, Daniel, 2013. "Scenarios and early warnings as dynamic capabilities to frame managerial attention," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(4), pages 825-838.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:80:y:2013:i:4:p:825-838
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2012.10.029
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Cheng, M.N. & Wong, Jane W.K. & Cheung, C.F. & Leung, K.H., 2016. "A scenario-based roadmapping method for strategic planning and forecasting: A case study in a testing, inspection and certification company," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 44-62.
    2. Rowe, Emily & Wright, George & Derbyshire, James, 2017. "Enhancing horizon scanning by utilizing pre-developed scenarios: Analysis of current practice and specification of a process improvement to aid the identification of important ‘weak signals’," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 224-235.
    3. Bezjian, James & Stoyanova, Veselina & McKiernan, Peter & MacKay, R. Bradley, 2020. "Synthesizing scenario planning and industry recipes through an analysis of the Hollywood film industry," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    4. Klos, Christoph & Spieth, Patrick, 2021. "READY, STEADY, DIGITAL?! How foresight activities do (NOT) affect individual technological frames for managerial SENSEMAKING," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    5. Nissim, Gadi & Simon, Tomer, 2021. "The future of labor unions in the age of automation and at the dawn of AI," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    6. Wright, George & Cairns, George & O'Brien, Frances A. & Goodwin, Paul, 2019. "Scenario analysis to support decision making in addressing wicked problems: Pitfalls and potential," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 278(1), pages 3-19.
    7. Jan Oliver Schwarz & René Rohrbeck & Bernhard Wach, 2020. "Corporate foresight as a microfoundation of dynamic capabilities," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(2), June.
    8. Gordon, Adam Vigdor & Ramic, Mirza & Rohrbeck, René & Spaniol, Matthew J., 2020. "50 Years of corporate and organizational foresight: Looking back and going forward," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    9. Tiberius, Victor & Siglow, Caroline & Sendra-García, Javier, 2020. "Scenarios in business and management: The current stock and research opportunities," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 235-242.
    10. Akhtar, Pervaiz & Khan, Zaheer & Tarba, Shlomo & Jayawickrama, Uchitha, 2018. "The Internet of Things, dynamic data and information processing capabilities, and operational agility," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 307-316.
    11. Ramirez, R. & Bhatti, Y. & Tapinos, E., 2020. "Exploring how experience and learning curves decrease the time invested in scenario planning interventions," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    12. Idoko, Onyaglanu & MacKay, R. Bradley, 2021. "The performativity of strategic foresight tools: Horizon scanning as an activation device in strategy formation within a UK financial institution," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    13. Derbyshire, James & Wright, George, 2017. "Augmenting the intuitive logics scenario planning method for a more comprehensive analysis of causation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 254-266.
    14. Paul J. H. Schoemaker, 2019. "Attention and foresight in organizations," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(1), March.
    15. Nicholas J. Rowland & Matthew J. Spaniol, 2021. "On inquiry in futures and foresight science," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(1), March.
    16. Haarhaus, Tim & Liening, Andreas, 2020. "Building dynamic capabilities to cope with environmental uncertainty: The role of strategic foresight," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    17. Ian S. Lustick & Philip E. Tetlock, 2021. "The simulation manifesto: The limits of brute‐force empiricism in geopolitical forecasting," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(2), June.
    18. MacKay, R. Bradley & Stoyanova, Veselina, 2017. "Scenario planning with a sociological eye: Augmenting the intuitive logics approach to understanding the Future of Scotland and the UK," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 88-100.
    19. Ramboarison-Lalao, Lovanirina & Gannouni, Kais, 2019. "Liberated firm, a leverage of well-being and technological change? A prospective study based on the scenario method," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 129-139.
    20. Sophia El Kerdini & Sophie Hooge, 2013. "Can strategic foresight and creativity tools be combined? Structuring a conceptual framework for collective exploration of the unknown," Post-Print hal-00824348, HAL.
    21. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-00824348 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Upham, Paul & Klapper, Rita & Carney, Sebastian, 2016. "Participatory energy scenario development as dramatic scripting: A structural narrative analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 47-56.
    23. Ellsaesser, Florian & Fioretti, Guido, 2022. "Deciding Not To Decide," MPRA Paper 111546, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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