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The rise in inequality after pandemics: can fiscal support play a mitigating role?
[Epidemics, inequality, and poverty in preindustrial and early industrial time]

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  • Davide Furceri
  • Prakash Loungani
  • Jonathan D Ostry
  • Pietro Pizzuto

Abstract

Major epidemics of the last two decades (SARS, H1N1, MERS, Ebola, and Zika) have been followed by increases in inequality [Furceri et al. (2020), COVID Economics, 12, 138–157]. In this article, we show that the extent of fiscal consolidation in the years following the onset of these pandemics has played an important role in determining the extent of the increase in inequality. Episodes marked by extreme austerity—measured using either the government’s fiscal balance, health expenditures, or redistribution—have been associated with an increase in the Gini measure of inequality three times as large as in episodes where fiscal policy has been more supportive. We survey the evidence thus far on the distributional impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, which suggests that inequality is likely to increase in the absence of strong policy actions. We review the case made by many observers [IMF (2020), Fiscal Monitor; Stiglitz (2020), Finance & Development, Fall 2020; Sandbu (2020b), Financial Times, 26 November 2020)] that fiscal support should not be withdrawn prematurely despite understandable concerns about high public debt-to-GDP ratios.

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  • Davide Furceri & Prakash Loungani & Jonathan D Ostry & Pietro Pizzuto, 2021. "The rise in inequality after pandemics: can fiscal support play a mitigating role? [Epidemics, inequality, and poverty in preindustrial and early industrial time]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 30(2), pages 445-457.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:indcch:v:30:y:2021:i:2:p:445-457.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Gao, Shuaizhi & Zhou, Peng & Zhang, Hongyan, 2023. "Does energy transition help narrow the urban-rural income gap? Evidence from China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    3. Michael Christl & Silvia De Poli & Dénes Kucsera & Hanno Lorenz, 2022. "COVID-19 and (gender) inequality in income: the impact of discretionary policy measures in Austria," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 158(1), pages 1-17, December.
    4. Jakub Borowski & Krystian Jaworski, 2023. "Economic and behavioral determinants of forced household savings during the COVID-19 pandemic," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 50(1), pages 237-253, February.
    5. Doojav, Gan-Ochir, 2021. "Socio-economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic: Macroeconomic impacts and policy issues in Mongolia," MPRA Paper 111197, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    JEL classification:

    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • I14 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Inequality
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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