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The Rise in Inequality after Pandemics: Can Fiscal Support Play a Mitigating Role?

Author

Listed:
  • Davide Furceri
  • Mr. Prakash Loungani
  • Mr. Jonathan David Ostry
  • Pietro Pizzuto

Abstract

Major epidemics of the last two decades (SARS, H1N1, MERS, Ebola and Zika) have been followed by increases in inequality (Furceri, Loungani, Ostry and Pizzuto, 2020). In this paper, we show that the extent of fiscal consolidation in the years following the onset of these pandemics has played an important role in determining the extent of the increase in inequality. Episodes marked by extreme austerity—measured using either the government’s fiscal balance, health expenditures or redistribution—have been associated with an increase in the Gini measure of inequality three times as large as in episodes where fiscal policy has been more supportive. We survey the evidence thus far on the distributional impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, which suggests that inequality is likely to increase in the absence of strong policy actions. We review the case made by many observers (IMF 2020; Stiglitz 2020; Sandbu 2020b) that fiscal support should not be withdrawn prematurely despite understandable concerns about high public debt-to-GDP ratios.

Suggested Citation

  • Davide Furceri & Mr. Prakash Loungani & Mr. Jonathan David Ostry & Pietro Pizzuto, 2021. "The Rise in Inequality after Pandemics: Can Fiscal Support Play a Mitigating Role?," IMF Working Papers 2021/120, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2021/120
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    Cited by:

    1. Fu, Mengyu, 2025. "Can low-carbon technology transfer accelerate energy efficiency convergence," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 333(C).
    2. Gao, Shuaizhi & Zhou, Peng & Zhang, Hongyan, 2023. "Does energy transition help narrow the urban-rural income gap? Evidence from China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    3. Davide Furceri & Prakash Loungani & Jonathan D. Ostry & Pietro Pizzuto, 2022. "Will COVID-19 Have Long-Lasting Effects on Inequality? Evidence from Past Pandemics," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 20(4), pages 811-839, December.
    4. World Bank, 2022. "Global Economic Prospects, January 2022," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 36519, April.
    5. Michael Christl & Silvia De Poli & Dénes Kucsera & Hanno Lorenz, 2022. "COVID-19 and (gender) inequality in income: the impact of discretionary policy measures in Austria," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 158(1), pages 1-17, December.
    6. Fariborz Aref, 2024. "Analyzing inequalities: a multifaceted perspective of OECD welfare regimes during the Great Recession and the Pandemic," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 71(2), pages 401-420, June.
    7. Giovanni Bartolomeo & Paolo D’Imperio, 2025. "A macroeconomic assessment of the Italian Recovery and Resilience Plan from administrative data," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 42(2), pages 501-547, July.
    8. Jakub Borowski & Krystian Jaworski, 2023. "Economic and behavioral determinants of forced household savings during the COVID-19 pandemic," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 50(1), pages 237-253, February.
    9. Doojav, Gan-Ochir, 2021. "Socio-economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic: Macroeconomic impacts and policy issues in Mongolia," MPRA Paper 111197, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Sebastian Gechert, 2022. "Reconsidering macroeconomic policy prescriptions with meta-analysis [Statistical nonsignificance in empirical economics]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 31(2), pages 576-590.

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    JEL classification:

    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • I14 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Inequality
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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