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Recession Prediction on the Clock

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  • Thomas M. Mertens

Abstract

The jobless unemployment rate is a reliable predictor of recessions, almost always showing a turning point shortly before recessions but not at other times. Its success in predicting recessions is on par with the better-known slope of the yield curve but at a shorter horizon. Hence, it performs better for predicting recessions in the near term. Currently, this data and related series analyzed using the same method are not signaling that a recession is imminent, although that may change in coming months.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas M. Mertens, 2022. "Recession Prediction on the Clock," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(36), pages 1-06, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:95426
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "Evaluating the Classification of Economic Activity into Recessions and Expansions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 246-277, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Libo Xu, 2025. "Economic downturn and the yield curve: Evidence from Canada and the US," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 49(2), pages 536-567, June.

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