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Thomas Michael Mertens

Personal Details

First Name:Thomas
Middle Name:Michael
Last Name:Mertens
Suffix:
RePEc Short-ID:pme415
[This author has chosen not to make the email address public]
https://sites.google.com/site/thomasmichaelmertens/
Terminal Degree:2009 Department of Economics; Harvard University (from RePEc Genealogy)

Affiliation

Economic Research
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

San Francisco, California (United States)
http://www.frbsf.org/economics/

(415) 974-3190
(415) 974-2168
P.O. Box 7702, San Francisco, CA 94120-7702
RePEc:edi:erfsfus (more details at EDIRC)

Research output

as
Jump to: Working papers Articles

Working papers

  1. Thomas M. Mertens & John C. Williams, 2019. "Monetary policy frameworks and the effective lower bound on interest rates," Staff Reports 877, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  2. Thomas M. Mertens & John C. Williams, 2019. "Tying Down the Anchor: Monetary Policy Rules and the Lower Bound on Interest Rates," Working Paper Series 2019-14, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  3. Thomas M. Mertens & John C. Williams, 2018. "What to Expect from the Lower Bound on Interest Rates: Evidence from Derivatives Prices," Working Paper Series 2018-3, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  4. Tarek A. Hassan & Thomas M. Mertens & Tony Zhang, 2016. "Currency Manipulation," Working Paper Series 2016-15, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  5. Tarek A. Hassan & Thomas M. Mertens & Tony Zhang, 2015. "Not so disconnected: exchange rates and the capital stock," Working Paper Series 2015-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  6. Tarek A. Hassan & Thomas M. Mertens, 2011. "The Social Cost of Near-Rational Investment," NBER Working Papers 17027, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Roc Armenter & Thomas M. Mertens, 2010. "Fraud deterrence in dynamic Mirrleesian economies," Working Papers 10-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  8. Thomas Mertens, 2005. "Option pricing with sparse grids," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 449, Society for Computational Economics.

Articles

  1. Renuka Diwan & Sylvain Leduc & Thomas M. Mertens, 2020. "Average-Inflation Targeting and the Effective Lower Bound," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2020(22), pages 1-01, August.
  2. Simon H. Kwan & Thomas M. Mertens, 2020. "Market Assessment of COVID-19," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2020(14), pages 1-5, May.
  3. Michael D. Bauer & Thomas M. Mertens, 2019. "Zero Lower Bound Risk according to Option Prices," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  4. Thomas M. Mertens & Patrick Shultz & Michael Tubbs, 2018. "Valuation Ratios for Households and Businesses," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  5. Michael D. Bauer & Thomas M. Mertens, 2018. "Economic Forecasts with the Yield Curve," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  6. Michael D. Bauer & Thomas M. Mertens, 2018. "Information in the Yield Curve about Future Recessions," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  7. Thomas M. Mertens & Patrick Shultz, 2017. "China's Exchange Rate Policies and U.S. Financial Markets," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  8. John G. Fernald & Thomas M. Mertens & Patrick Shultz, 2017. "Has the Dollar Become More Sensitive to Interest Rates?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  9. Tarek A. Hassan & Thomas M. Mertens, 2011. "Market Sentiment: A Tragedy of the Commons," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 402-405, May.

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Tarek A. Hassan & Thomas M. Mertens, 2011. "The Social Cost of Near-Rational Investment," NBER Working Papers 17027, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Mentioned in:

    1. The high welfare cost of small information failures
      by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2011-06-09 20:19:00

Working papers

  1. Thomas M. Mertens & John C. Williams, 2019. "Monetary policy frameworks and the effective lower bound on interest rates," Staff Reports 877, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. William Chen & Marco Del Negro & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2020. "What’s Up with the Phillips Curve?," Liberty Street Economics 20200918a, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Gauti Eggertsson & Sergey K. Egiev & Alessandro Lin & Josef Platzer & Luca Riva, 2020. "A Toolkit for Solving Models with a Lower Bound on Interest Rates of Stochastic Duration," Working Papers 2020-14, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    3. Susana Párraga & Pedro del Río & Juan Luis Vega, 2019. "The Federal Reserve review of its monetary policy framework," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España;Economic Bulletin Homepage, issue DEC, pages 1-14.
    4. Martin Bodenstein & James Hebden & Fabian Winkler, 2019. "Learning and Misperception: Implications for Price-Level Targeting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-078, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Schoenholtz, Kermit, 2019. "Improving U.S. Monetary Policy Communications," CEPR Discussion Papers 13915, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Jerome H. Powell, 2019. "Monetary Policy: Normalization and the Road Ahead : a speech at the 2019 SIEPR Economic Summit, Stanford Institute of Economic Policy Research, Stanford, California, March 8, 2019," Speech 1044, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Jerome H. Powell, 2019. "Opening Remarks : a speech at the \"Conference on Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communications Practices\" sponsored by the Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago, ," Speech 1070, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Carl E. Walsh, 2019. "Alternatives to Inflation Targeting in Low Interest Rate Environments," IMES Discussion Paper Series 19-E-13, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.

  2. Thomas M. Mertens & John C. Williams, 2019. "Tying Down the Anchor: Monetary Policy Rules and the Lower Bound on Interest Rates," Working Paper Series 2019-14, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. William Chen & Marco Del Negro & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2020. "What’s Up with the Phillips Curve?," Liberty Street Economics 20200918a, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Coenen, Günter & Montes-Galdón, Carlos & Smets, Frank, 2020. "Effects of state-dependent forward guidance, large-scale asset purchases and fiscal stimulus in a low-interest-rate environment," Working Paper Series 2352, European Central Bank.
    3. Gauti Eggertsson & Sergey K. Egiev & Alessandro Lin & Josef Platzer & Luca Riva, 2020. "A Toolkit for Solving Models with a Lower Bound on Interest Rates of Stochastic Duration," Working Papers 2020-14, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    4. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi & Matthias Rottner, 2019. "Hitting the Elusive Inflation Target," Working Paper Series WP-2019-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    5. John C. Williams, 2019. "When the Facts Change…: remarks at the 9th High-Level Conference on the International Monetary System, Zürich, Switzerland," Speech 320, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    6. Eo, Yunjong & Lie, Denny, 2020. "Average inflation targeting and interest-rate smoothing," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    7. Jasmina Arifovic & Alex Grimaud & Isabelle Salle & Gauthier Vermandel, 2020. "Social Learning and Monetary Policy at the Effective Lower Bound," Staff Working Papers 20-2, Bank of Canada.
    8. Rostagno, Massimo & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Motto, Roberto & Saint Guilhem, Arthur & Yiangou, Jonathan, 2019. "A tale of two decades: the ECB’s monetary policy at 20," Working Paper Series 2346, European Central Bank.
    9. John C. Williams, 2019. "If we fail to prepare, we prepare to rail: remarks at Council on Foreign Relations, New York City," Speech 323, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

  3. Thomas M. Mertens & John C. Williams, 2018. "What to Expect from the Lower Bound on Interest Rates: Evidence from Derivatives Prices," Working Paper Series 2018-3, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Schupp, Fabian, 2020. "The (ir)relevance of the nominal lower bound for real yield curve analysis," Discussion Papers 32/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Janice C. Eberly & James H. Stock & Jonathan H. Wright, 2019. "The Federal Reserve’s Current Framework for Monetary Policy: A Review and Assessment," NBER Working Papers 26002, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Hills, Timothy S. & Nakata, Taisuke & Schmidt, Sebastian, 2019. "Effective lower bound risk," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    4. Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Juan Contreras & Aaron Mehrotra & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2020. "Inflation at risk in advanced and emerging economies," BIS Working Papers 883, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Thomas M. Mertens & John C. Williams, 2019. "Tying Down the Anchor: Monetary Policy Rules and the Lower Bound on Interest Rates," Working Paper Series 2019-14, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    6. Michael D. Bauer & Aeimit K. Lakdawala & Philippe Mueller, 2019. "Market-Based Monetary Policy Uncertainty," Working Paper Series 2019-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    7. Lamla, Michael & Pfajfar, Damjan & Rendell, Lea, 2019. "Inflation and Deflationary Biases in Inflation Expectations," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203644, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. Sanjay R. Singh & Pablo Cuba-Borda, 2019. "Understanding Persistent Stagnation," Working Papers 329, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    9. Michael D. Bauer & Aeimit Lakdawala & Philippe Mueller, 2019. "Market-based monetary policy uncertainty," CESifo Working Paper Series 7621, CESifo.
    10. Thomas M. Mertens & John C. Williams, 2019. "Monetary Policy Frameworks and the Effective Lower Bound on Interest Rates," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 109, pages 427-432, May.
    11. Robert Amano & Thomas Carter & Sylvain Leduc, 2019. "Precautionary Pricing: The Disinflationary Effects of ELB Risk," Working Paper Series 2019-26, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

  4. Tarek A. Hassan & Thomas M. Mertens & Tony Zhang, 2016. "Currency Manipulation," Working Paper Series 2016-15, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Colacito, Riccardo & Croce, Mariano Massimiliano & Liu, Yang & Shaliastovich, Ivan, 2018. "Volatility Risk Pass-Through," CEPR Discussion Papers 13325, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Tarek A. Hassan & Thomas M. Mertens & Tony Zhang, 2015. "Not so disconnected: exchange rates and the capital stock," Working Paper Series 2015-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    3. Lukas Menkhoff & Malte Rieth & Tobias Stöhr, 2020. "The Dynamic Impact of FX Interventions on Financial Markets," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1854, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Kathryn M. E. Dominguez, 2020. "Revisiting Exchange Rate Rules," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(3), pages 693-719, September.
    5. Guido M. Kuersteiner & David C. Phillips & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2016. "Effective Sterilized Foreign Exchange Intervention? Evidence from a Rule-Based Policy," Borradores de Economia 964, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    6. Luna Santos, Francisco, 2021. "Comparing the impact of discretionary and pre-announced central bank interventions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    7. Vania Stavrakeva & Jenny Tang, 2018. "The dollar during the global recession: US monetary policy and the exorbitant duty," Working Papers 18-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

  5. Tarek A. Hassan & Thomas M. Mertens & Tony Zhang, 2015. "Not so disconnected: exchange rates and the capital stock," Working Paper Series 2015-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Colacito, Riccardo & Croce, Mariano Massimiliano & Liu, Yang & Shaliastovich, Ivan, 2018. "Volatility Risk Pass-Through," CEPR Discussion Papers 13325, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Thomas Mertens & Tarek Hassan, 2017. "Currency Manipulation," 2017 Meeting Papers 175, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95, July.
    4. Sticca, Ralph Melles & Nakao, Silvio Hiroshi, 2019. "Hedge accounting choice as exchange loss avoidance under financial crisis: Evidence from Brazil," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    5. Claessens, Stijn & Kose, Ayhan, 2017. "Asset Prices and Macroeconomic Outcomes: A Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 12460, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Nedra Baklouti & Younes Boujelbene, 2020. "A simultaneous equation model of economic growth and shadow economy: Is there a difference between the developed and developing countries?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 151-170, February.
    7. Aleksandra Babii, 2019. "Exchange Rates Co-movement and International Trade," 2019 Meeting Papers 1150, Society for Economic Dynamics.

  6. Tarek A. Hassan & Thomas M. Mertens, 2011. "The Social Cost of Near-Rational Investment," NBER Working Papers 17027, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Kyle Jurado, 2016. "Advance Information and Distorted Beliefs in Macroeconomic and Financial Fluctuations," 2016 Meeting Papers 154, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Joel M. David & Ina Simonovska, 2015. "Correlated Beliefs, Returns, and Stock Market Volatility," NBER Working Papers 21480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Tarek A. Hassan & Stephan Hollander & Laurence van Lent & Ahmed Tahoun, 2017. "Firm-Level Political Risk: Measurement and Effects," NBER Working Papers 24029, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Tarek Alexander Hassan & Stephan Hollander & Laurence van Lent & Ahmed Tahoun, 2020. "The Global Impact of Brexit Uncertainty," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series dp-332, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    5. Tarek Alexander Hassan & Stephan Hollander & Laurence van Lent & Ahmed Tahoun, 2020. "The Global Impact of Brexit Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 26609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Mendel, Brock & Shleifer, Andrei, 2012. "Chasing Noise," Scholarly Articles 10859950, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    7. Giacomo Rondina & Todd Walker, 2016. "Learning and Informational Stability of Dynamic REE with Incomplete Information," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 21, pages 147-159, July.
    8. Andreas Fuster & Benjamin Hebert & David Laibson, 2012. "Natural Expectations, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Asset Pricing," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 1-48.
    9. Rüdiger Bachmann & Steffen Elstner, 2013. "Firms' Optimism and Pessimism," NBER Working Papers 18989, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Robert Ulbricht & Ludwig Straub, 2015. "Endogenous Uncertainty and Credit Crunches," 2015 Meeting Papers 199, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Adam, Klaus & Beutel, Johannes & Marcet, Albert, 2014. "Stock Price Booms and Expected Capital Gains," CEPR Discussion Papers 9988, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Angeletos, G.-M. & Lian, C., 2016. "Incomplete Information in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1065-1240, Elsevier.
    13. Lansing, Kevin J., 2012. "Speculative growth, overreaction, and the welfare cost of technology-driven bubbles," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 461-483.
    14. Elena Asparouhova & Peter Bossaerts & Nilanjan Roy & William Zame, 2013. "‘Lucas’ In The Laboratory," EIEF Working Papers Series 1314, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised May 2013.
    15. Mira Frick & Ryota Iijima & Yuhta Ishii, 2019. "Misinterpreting Others and the Fragility of Social Learning," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2160R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Mar 2020.
    16. Darmouni, Olivier & Sutherland, Andrew, 2018. "Learning about Competitors: Evidence from SME Lending," MPRA Paper 93668, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Hassan, Tarek & Mertens, Thomas M., 2014. "Information Aggregation in a DSGE Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 10020, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Ryan Chahrour & Gaetano Gaballo, 2015. "On the Nature and Stability of Sentiments," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 873, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 05 May 2015.
    19. Thomas Mertens, 2012. "Solving General Incomplete Market Models with Substantial Heterogeneity," 2012 Meeting Papers 1173, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Kathy Yuan & Emre Ozdenoren & Itay Goldstein, 2010. "Trading Frenzies and Their Impact on Real Investment," 2010 Meeting Papers 94, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    21. Tarek A. Hassan & Thomas M. Mertens, 2011. "Market Sentiment: A Tragedy of the Commons," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 402-405, May.
    22. Fuchs-Schündeln, Nicola & Hassan, Tarek, 2015. "Natural Experiments in Macroeconomics," CEPR Discussion Papers 10628, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    23. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Alp Simsek & Wei Xiong, 2014. "A Welfare Criterion For Models With Distorted Beliefs," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 129(4), pages 1753-1797.
    24. Tarek A. Hassan & Thomas M. Mertens, 2014. "Information Aggregation in a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2014, Volume 29, pages 159-207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Ruediger Bachmann & Steffen Elstner, 2013. "Firms' Optimism and Pessimism," CESifo Working Paper Series 4176, CESifo.
    26. Mertens, Thomas M. & Judd, Kenneth L., 2018. "Solving an incomplete markets model with a large cross-section of agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 349-368.
    27. Stephen J. Terry, 2015. "The Macro Impact of Short-Termism," Discussion Papers 15-022, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    28. Kenneth J. Singleton, 2014. "Investor Flows and the 2008 Boom/Bust in Oil Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(2), pages 300-318, February.
    29. Colacito, Riccardo & Croce, Mariano Massimiliano & Ho, Steven & Howard, Philip, 2018. "BKK the EZ Way. International Long-Run Growth News and Capital Flows," CEPR Discussion Papers 12783, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    30. Chahrour, Ryan & Gaballo, Gaetano, 2017. "Learning from prices: amplication and business fluctuations," Working Paper Series 2053, European Central Bank.
    31. Avanidhar Subrahmanyam & Sheridan Titman, 2013. "Financial Market Shocks and the Macroeconomy," NBER Working Papers 19383, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Ambrocio, Gene, 2015. "Rational exuberance booms and asymmetric business cycles," Research Discussion Papers 24/2015, Bank of Finland.
    33. Indrajit Mitra & Leonid Kogan, 2014. "Accuracy Verification for Numerical Solutions of Equilibrium Models," 2014 Meeting Papers 423, Society for Economic Dynamics.

  7. Roc Armenter & Thomas M. Mertens, 2010. "Fraud deterrence in dynamic Mirrleesian economies," Working Papers 10-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Cited by:

    1. Zoutman, Floris T. & Jacobs, Bas, 2016. "Optimal redistribution and monitoring of labor supply," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 15-31.
    2. Yunmin Chen & YiLi Chien & Michael T. Owyang, 2015. "Individual and Aggregate Constrained Efficient Intertemporal Wedges in Dynamic Mirrleesian Economies," Working Papers 2015-43, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    3. Ravikumar, B. & Zhang, Yuzhe, 2012. "Optimal auditing and insurance in a dynamic model of tax compliance," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 7(2), May.
    4. Christos Kotsogiannis & Xavier Mateos-Planas, 2019. "Tax Evasion as Contingent Debt," Discussion Papers 1903, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    5. Kotsogiannis, Christos & Mateos-Planas, Xavier, 2019. "Tax evasion as contingent debt," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 100941, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

  8. Thomas Mertens, 2005. "Option pricing with sparse grids," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 449, Society for Computational Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Gull, 2011. "Valuation of Discount Options in Software License Agreements," Business & Information Systems Engineering: The International Journal of WIRTSCHAFTSINFORMATIK, Springer;Gesellschaft für Informatik e.V. (GI), vol. 3(4), pages 221-230, August.

Articles

  1. Michael D. Bauer & Thomas M. Mertens, 2018. "Economic Forecasts with the Yield Curve," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Rebecca Stuart, 2020. "Monetary regimes, the term structure and business cycles in Ireland, 1972–2018," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(5), pages 731-748, September.
    2. B. De Backer & M. Deroose & Ch. Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2019. "Is a recession imminent? The signal of the yield curve," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 69-93, June.
    3. Poza, Carlos & Monge, Manuel, 2020. "A real time leading economic indicator based on text mining for the Spanish economy. Fractional cointegration VAR and Continuous Wavelet Transform analysis," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 163-175.
    4. Luca Benzoni & Olena Chyruk & David Kelley, 2018. "Why Does the Yield-Curve Slope Predict Recessions?," Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    5. Eric Engstrom & Steven A. Sharpe, 2018. "The Near-Term Forward Yield Spread as a Leading Indicator : A Less Distorted Mirror," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-055, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Emanuel Kopp & Peter D. Williams, 2018. "A Macroeconomic Approach to the Term Premium," IMF Working Papers 2018/140, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Gerlach, Stefan & Stuart, Rebecca, 2018. "The Slope of the Term Structure and Recessions: The Pre-Fed Evidence, 1857-1913," CEPR Discussion Papers 13013, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Michael D. Bauer & Thomas M. Mertens, 2018. "Information in the Yield Curve about Future Recessions," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    9. Todd Henry & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2020. "Forecasting Economic Activity Using the Yield Curve: Quasi-Real-Time Applications for New Zealand, Australia and the US," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2259, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    10. Erhard RESCHENHOFER & Thomas STARK, 2019. "Forecasting the Yield Curve with Dynamic Factors," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 101-113, March.
    11. Galvao, Ana Beatriz & Owyang, Michael, 2020. "Forecasting Low Frequency Macroeconomic Events with High Frequency Data," EMF Research Papers 38, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
    12. Lael Brainard, 2018. "Sustaining Full Employment and Inflation around Target : a speech at the Forecasters Club of New York, New York, New York, May 31, 2018," Speech 1005, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Ana B. Galvão & Michael T. Owyang, 2020. "Forecasting Low Frequency Macroeconomic Events with High Frequency Data," Working Papers 2020-028, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    14. Ferrari, Massimo & Le Mezo, Helena, 2021. "Text-based recession probabilities," Working Paper Series 2516, European Central Bank.

  2. Michael D. Bauer & Thomas M. Mertens, 2018. "Information in the Yield Curve about Future Recessions," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Bofinger, Peter & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schnabel, Isabel & Wieland, Volker, 2018. "Vor wichtigen wirtschaftspolitischen Weichenstellungen. Jahresgutachten 2018/19," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201819.
    2. B. De Backer & M. Deroose & Ch. Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2019. "Is a recession imminent? The signal of the yield curve," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 69-93, June.
    3. Harold M. Hastings & Tai Young-Taft & Thomas Wang, 2019. "When to Ease Off the Brakes--and Hopefully Prevent Recessions," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_929, Levy Economics Institute.
    4. Boda Kang & Christina Sklibosios Nikitopoulos & Marcel Prokopczuk, 2019. "Economic Determinants of Oil Futures Volatility: A Term Structure Perspective," Research Paper Series 401, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    5. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hauber, Philipp & Kooths, Stefan & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2019. "Weltkonjunktur im Winter 2019 - Weltkonjunktur bleibt vorerst ohne Schwung [World Economy Winter 2019 - Global growth remains sluggish for the time being]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 61, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    6. Hauber, Philipp, 2019. "Zur Wahrscheinlichkeit einer Rezession in den Vereinigten Staaten," IfW-Box 2019.14, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).

  3. John G. Fernald & Thomas M. Mertens & Patrick Shultz, 2017. "Has the Dollar Become More Sensitive to Interest Rates?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Matthieu Bussiere & Menzie D. Chinn & Laurent Ferrara & Jonas Heipertz, 2018. "The New Fama Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 24342, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  4. Tarek A. Hassan & Thomas M. Mertens, 2011. "Market Sentiment: A Tragedy of the Commons," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 402-405, May.

    Cited by:

    1. Vladimir Asriyan & William Fuchs & Brett Green, 2017. "Liquidity Sentiments," Working Papers 993, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    2. Angeletos, G.-M. & Lian, C., 2016. "Incomplete Information in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1065-1240, Elsevier.
    3. George-Marios Angeletos & Chen Lian, 2016. "Incomplete Information in Macroeconomics: Accommodating Frictions in Coordination," NBER Working Papers 22297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Tarek A. Hassan & Thomas M. Mertens, 2011. "The Social Cost of Near-Rational Investment," NBER Working Papers 17027, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Guo, Yumei & He, Shan, 2020. "Does confidence matter for economic growth? An analysis from the perspective of policy effectiveness," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1-19.
    6. Vives, Xavier & Yang, Liyan, 2017. "Costly Interpretation of Asset Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 12360, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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Co-authorship network on CollEc

NEP Fields

NEP is an announcement service for new working papers, with a weekly report in each of many fields. This author has had 9 papers announced in NEP. These are the fields, ordered by number of announcements, along with their dates. If the author is listed in the directory of specialists for this field, a link is also provided.
  1. NEP-MAC: Macroeconomics (7) 2016-08-28 2018-02-19 2018-09-10 2019-01-14 2019-01-28 2019-05-13 2019-05-20. Author is listed
  2. NEP-MON: Monetary Economics (6) 2018-02-19 2018-09-10 2019-01-14 2019-01-28 2019-05-13 2019-05-20. Author is listed
  3. NEP-CBA: Central Banking (4) 2018-09-10 2019-01-14 2019-05-13 2019-05-20
  4. NEP-CTA: Contract Theory & Applications (2) 2010-04-11 2011-05-14
  5. NEP-BEC: Business Economics (1) 2019-05-20
  6. NEP-IAS: Insurance Economics (1) 2010-04-11

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