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The Optimal Supply of Central Bank Reserves under Uncertainty

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Abstract

This paper provides an analytically tractable theoretical framework to study the optimal supply of central bank reserves when the demand for reserves is uncertain and nonlinear. We fully characterize the optimal supply of central bank reserves and associated market equilibrium. We find that the optimal supply of reserves under uncertainty is greater than that absent uncertainty. With a sufficient degree of uncertainty, it is optimal to supply a level of reserves that is abundant (on the flat portion of the demand curve) absent shocks. The optimal mean spread between the market interest rate and administered rates under uncertainty may be higher or lower than that absent uncertainty. Our model is consistent with the observation that the variability of interest rate spreads is a function of the level of reserves.

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  • Gara Afonso & Gabriele La Spada & Thomas M. Mertens & John C. Williams, 2023. "The Optimal Supply of Central Bank Reserves under Uncertainty," Working Paper Series 2023-34, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:97340
    DOI: 10.24148/wp2023-34
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    1. Bhattacharya, Joydeep & Haslag, Joseph & Russell, Steven, 2005. "The role of money in two alternative models: When is the Friedman rule optimal, and why?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1401-1433, November.
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    1. d'Avernas, Adrien & Vandeweyer, Quentin & Petersen, Damon, 2025. "The central bank’s balance sheet and treasury market disruptions," Working Paper Series 3066, European Central Bank.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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