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Role of credit and expectations in house price dynamics

Author

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  • Bhatt, Vipul
  • Kishor, N. Kundan

Abstract

Using quarterly data for 18 advanced economies from 1991–2020 we estimate a fixed-effects quantile dynamic panel model and provide evidence for non-linearity in the effects of credit, interest rates and expectations on house price growth. We find that excessive credit buildup negatively impacts house price growth during housing busts, whereas low interest rates and expectations, as measured by past house price growth is associated with housing price booms. Using local projections, we also find evidence that these effects persist over multiple quarters.

Suggested Citation

  • Bhatt, Vipul & Kishor, N. Kundan, 2022. "Role of credit and expectations in house price dynamics," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:50:y:2022:i:c:s1544612322004081
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2022.103203
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Giovanni Favara & Jean Imbs, 2015. "Credit Supply and the Price of Housing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 958-992, March.
    2. John B. Taylor, 2007. "Housing and monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 463-476.
    3. Theresa Kuchler & Monika Piazzesi & Johannes Stroebel, 2022. "Housing Market Expectations," NBER Working Papers 29909, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Machado, José A.F. & Santos Silva, J.M.C., 2019. "Quantiles via moments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 213(1), pages 145-173.
    5. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2011. "House Prices, Home Equity-Based Borrowing, and the US Household Leverage Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2132-2156, August.
    6. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M Taylor, 2011. "Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(2), pages 340-378, June.
    7. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    8. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 299-362.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lee, Hung-Wei & Lin, Che-Chun & Tsai, I-Chun, 2023. "Another application of call options: Explaining the divergence between the housing market and the rental market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    2. Kishor, N. Kundan, 2023. "Forecasting House Prices: The Role of Fundamentals, Credit Conditions, and Supply Indicators," MPRA Paper 116819, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing market; Dynamic panel quantile model; Credit conditions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General

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