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Inflation and Labor Markets: A Bottom-Up View

Author

Listed:
  • Sophia Chen

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Deniz Igan

    (Bank for International Settlements and CEPR)

  • Do Lee

    (New York University)

  • Prachi Mishra

    (Ashoka University)

Abstract

U.S. inflation surged in 2021-22 and has since declined, driven largely by a sharp drop in goods inflation, though services inflation remains elevated. This paper zooms into services inflation, using proprietary microdata on wages to examine its relationship with service sector wage growth at the Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) level. We estimate the wage-price pass-through with a local projection instrumental variable model that exploits variation in labor market tightness across MSAs. Our findings reveal a positive and significant relationship between wages and price growth, with a lag. This suggests that the effects of tight labor markets are persistent and may influence the pace of progression toward the inflation target.

Suggested Citation

  • Sophia Chen & Deniz Igan & Do Lee & Prachi Mishra, 2024. "Inflation and Labor Markets: A Bottom-Up View," Working Papers 127, Ashoka University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ash:wpaper:127
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    File URL: https://dp.ashoka.edu.in/ash/wpaper/paper127_0.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jay Stewart, 2022. "Why was Labor Productivity Growth So High during the COVID-19 Pandemic? The Role of Labor Composition," Economic Working Papers 545, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
    2. Laurence M. Ball & Daniel Leigh & Prachi Mishra, 2022. "Understanding U.S. Inflation During the COVID Era," NBER Working Papers 30613, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Laurence Ball & Daniel Leigh & Prachi Mishra, 2022. "Understanding US Inflation during the COVID-19 Era," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 53(2 (Fall)), pages 1-80.
    4. David Autor & Arindrajit Dube & Annie McGrew, 2023. "The Unexpected Compression: Competition at Work in the Low Wage Labor Market," NBER Working Papers 31010, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2020. "Slack and Cyclically Sensitive Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(S2), pages 393-428, December.
    6. Michael McLeay & Silvana Tenreyro, 2020. "Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(1), pages 199-255.
    7. Jesse LaBelle & Ana Maria Santacreu, 2022. "Global Supply Chain Disruptions and Inflation During the COVID-19 Pandemic," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 104(2), pages 78-91.
    8. Òscar Jordà, 2005. "Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 161-182, March.
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    inflation;

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