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Estimates of Dynamics of the Covid19 Pandemic and of its Impact on the Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Lucian Liviu ALBU

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy.)

  • Ciprian Ion PREDA

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy.)

  • Radu LUPU

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy.)

  • Carmen Elena DOBROTĂ

    (Business and Administration Faculty, Bucharest University)

  • George Marian CĂLIN

    (Doctoral School, Bucharest University of Economic Studies)

  • Claudia M. BOGHICEVICI

    (Faculty of Economics, "Aurel Vlaicu" University of Arad.)

Abstract

Economic growth forecasts have been revised downwards in most countries, but the incertitude regarding the duration or the evolution of the crisis persist. Under the pressure of the Covid-19 pandemic expansion, today it is supposed that a huge global crisis will follow in all fields (humanitarian, social, economic). The pandemic impact is difficult to be evaluated until it stops or at least its peak will be reached. As a contribution to such work, we propose an estimation-simulation model, as an alternative to other models coming from probabilistic, genetic algorithms or other approaches. In order to analyse the dynamics of the spread of epidemic among the population, we built a model with differential equations for a special logistic time-function, which resulted in certain key-values and four phases of its evolution. Moreover, by simulating the daily dynamics of pandemic at three levels (world, EU, and Romania) we estimated the impact of pandemic on the economic growth until the end of this year.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucian Liviu ALBU & Ciprian Ion PREDA & Radu LUPU & Carmen Elena DOBROTĂ & George Marian CĂLIN & Claudia M. BOGHICEVICI, 2020. "Estimates of Dynamics of the Covid19 Pandemic and of its Impact on the Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 5-17, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2020:i:2:p:5-17
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Claudiu-Cătălin MUNTEANU, 2020. "Food Insecurity And Pandemics: Addressing The Food Shock Of Covid-19 In Romania," Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Institute of Agricultural Economics, vol. 17(2), pages 265-273.
    3. Cecilia ALEXANDRI & Bianca PAUNA & Corina SAMAN, 2020. "The Relationship Between Total Factor Productivity and Subsidies in the Case of Romanian Farms," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 85-98, December.
    4. Karime Chahuán-Jiménez & Rolando Rubilar-Torrealba & Hanns de la Fuente-Mella, 2021. "Market Openness and Its Relationship to Connecting Markets Due to COVID-19," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-12, October.
    5. Lukas Cibik & Leon Richvalsky, 2023. "The Economy of EU Member Countries in 2020 from Perspective of Magic Square," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 8, pages 3-21.
    6. Vaijanath Babshetti & Jyothi E. Singh & Prakash B. Yaragol, 2022. "The Impact of COVID-19 on the Socio-economic Indicators of the Selected Asian Countries," India Quarterly: A Journal of International Affairs, , vol. 78(1), pages 28-46, March.
    7. Chopdar, Prasanta Kr & Paul, Justin & Prodanova, Jana, 2022. "Mobile shoppers’ response to Covid-19 phobia, pessimism and smartphone addiction: Does social influence matter?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    8. Adriana Florina Popa & Stefania Amalia Jimon & Delia David & Daniela Nicoleta Sahlian, 2021. "Influence of Fiscal Policies and Labor Market Characteristics on Sustainable Social Insurance Budgets—Empirical Evidence from Central and Eastern European Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-14, May.
    9. Ayhan Kuloğlu, 2021. "Covıd-19 Krizinin Petrol Fiyatları Üzerine Etkisi," Journal of Research in Economics, Politics & Finance, Ersan ERSOY, vol. 6(3), pages 710-727.
    10. Francis Kuriakose & Deepa Kylasam Iyer, 2024. "Initial conditions and cross-country macroeconomic impact during Covid-19," International Journal of Trade and Global Markets, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 19(1), pages 4-27.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19; logistic model; pandemic phases; inflection; concave trajectory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General

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