IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbwps/20232795.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The effectiveness of borrower-based macroprudential policies: a cross-country analysis using an integrated micro-macro simulation model

Author

Listed:
  • Giannoulakis, Stelios
  • Forletta, Marco
  • Gross, Marco
  • Tereanu, Eugen

Abstract

This paper evaluates the resilience benefits of borrower-based macroprudential policies—such as LTV, DSTI, or DTI caps—for households and banks in the EU. To that end, we employ a further developed variant of the integrated micro-macro simulation model of Gross and Población (2017). Besides various methodological advances, joint policy caps are now also considered, and the resilience benefits are decomposed across income and wealth categories of borrowing households. Our findings suggest that (1) the resilience of households improves notably as a result of implementing individual and joint policy limits, with joint limits being more than additively effective; (2) borrower-based measures can visibly enhance the quality of bank mortgage portfolios over time, supporting bank solvency ratios; and (3) the policies’ resilience benefits are more pronounced for households located at the lower end of the income and wealth distributions. JEL Classification: C33, E58, G18

Suggested Citation

  • Giannoulakis, Stelios & Forletta, Marco & Gross, Marco & Tereanu, Eugen, 2023. "The effectiveness of borrower-based macroprudential policies: a cross-country analysis using an integrated micro-macro simulation model," Working Paper Series 2795, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20232795
    Note: 3098116
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2795~95de3fc6cf.en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kuttner, Kenneth N. & Shim, Ilhyock, 2016. "Can non-interest rate policies stabilize housing markets? Evidence from a panel of 57 economies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 31-44.
    2. Frost, Jon & van Stralen, René, 2018. "Macroprudential policy and income inequality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 278-290.
    3. Katja Neugebauer, 2021. "Assessing the effectiveness of the Portuguese borrower-based measure in the Covid-19 context," Working Papers w202110, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    4. Richter, Björn & Schularick, Moritz & Shim, Ilhyock, 2019. "The costs of macroprudential policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 263-282.
    5. Michael Funke & Michael Paetz, 2012. "A DSGE-based assessment of nonlinear loan-to-Value policies: Evidence from Hong Kong," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 21204, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
    6. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2016. "The great mortgaging: housing finance, crises and business cycles," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 31(85), pages 107-152.
    7. √Íscar Jord√Ä & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "When Credit Bites Back," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(s2), pages 3-28, December.
    8. Mr. Marco Gross & Mr. Thierry Tressel & Xiaodan Ding & Eugen Tereanu, 2022. "What Drives Mortgage Default Risk in Europe and the U.S.?," IMF Working Papers 2022/065, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Cussen, Mary & O'Brien, Martin & Onorante, Luca & O'Reilly, Gerard, 2015. "Assessing the impact of macroprudential measures," Economic Letters 03/EL/15, Central Bank of Ireland.
    10. Pavol Jurca & Ján Klacso & Eugen Tereanu & Marco Forletta & Mr. Marco Gross, 2020. "The Effectiveness of Borrower-Based Macroprudential Measures: A Quantitative Analysis for Slovakia," IMF Working Papers 2020/134, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1986. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 123-180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Pau Rabanal & Christopher W. Crowe & Deniz O Igan, 2011. "Policies for Macrofinancial Stability; Options to Deal with Real Estate Booms," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 11/02, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Mr. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Mr. Pau Rabanal & Mr. Christopher W. Crowe & Ms. Deniz O Igan, 2011. "Policies for Macrofinancial Stability: Options to Deal with Real Estate Booms," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2011/002, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 10(Win), pages 2-16.
    15. Erlend Nier & Radu Popa & Maral Shamloo & Liviu Voinea, 2019. "Debt Service and Default: Calibrating Macroprudential Policy Using Micro Data," IMF Working Papers 2019/182, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2009. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the U.S. Mortgage Default Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(4), pages 1449-1496.
    17. Jaunius Karmelavičius & Mantas Dirma, 2023. "Micro-assessment of macroprudential borrower-based measures in Lithuania," Bank of Lithuania Occasional Paper Series 46, Bank of Lithuania.
    18. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "Macroprudential Policy: What Instruments and How to Use them? Lessons From Country Experiences," IMF Working Papers 2011/238, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Mr. Malhar S Nabar & Mr. Ashvin Ahuja, 2011. "Safeguarding Banks and Containing Property Booms: Cross-Country Evidenceon Macroprudential Policies and Lessons From Hong Kong SAR," IMF Working Papers 2011/284, International Monetary Fund.
    20. repec:zbw:bofitp:2012_011 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Heitor Almeida & Murillo Campello & Crocker Liu, 2006. "The Financial Accelerator: Evidence from International Housing Markets," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 10(3), pages 321-352, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gross, Marco & Población, Javier, 2017. "Assessing the efficacy of borrower-based macroprudential policy using an integrated micro-macro model for European households," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 510-528.
    2. Buesa, Alejandro & De Quinto, Alicia & Población, Javier, 2022. "Risky mortgages, credit shocks and cross-border spillovers," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 717-733.
    3. Mr. Ivo Krznar & Mr. James Morsink, 2014. "With Great Power Comes Great Responsibility: Macroprudential Tools at Work in Canada," IMF Working Papers 2014/083, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Dimitrios Laliotis & Alejandro Buesa & Miha Leber & Javier Población, 2020. "An agent-based model for the assessment of LTV caps," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(10), pages 1721-1748, October.
    5. Gross, Marco & Población García, Francisco Javier, 2016. "Assessing the efficacy of borrower-based macroprudential policy using an integrated micro-macro model for European households," Working Paper Series 1881, European Central Bank.
    6. Singh, Bhupal, 2023. "Housing prices and macroprudential policies: Evidence from microdata," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(1).
    7. Mr. Nicolas Arregui & Mr. Jaromir Benes & Mr. Ivo Krznar & Ms. Srobona Mitra & Mr. Andre O Santos, 2013. "Evaluating the Net Benefits of Macroprudential Policy: A Cookbook," IMF Working Papers 2013/167, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Poghosyan, Tigran, 2020. "How effective is macroprudential policy? Evidence from lending restriction measures in EU countries," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    9. Ferrero, Andrea & Harrison, Richard & Nelson, Benjamin, 2018. "House Price Dynamics, Optimal LTV Limits and the Liquidity Trap," CEPR Discussion Papers 13400, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Yang, Jin Young & Suh, Hyunduk, 2023. "Heterogeneous effects of macroprudential policies on firm leverage and value," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    11. Alvaro Fernandez-Gallardo & Ivan Paya, 2020. "Macroprudential Policy in the Euro Area," Working Papers 307121127, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    12. Nitzan Tzur-Ilan, 2019. "Macroprudential Policy: Implementation, Effects, And Lessons," Israel Economic Review, Bank of Israel, vol. 17(1), pages 39-71.
    13. Simona Malovana & Martin Hodula & Zuzana Gric & Josef Bajzik, 2022. "Borrower-Based Macroprudential Measures and Credit Growth: How Biased is the Existing Literature?," Working Papers 2022/8, Czech National Bank.
    14. Basten, Christoph & Koch, Catherine, 2015. "The causal effect of house prices on mortgage demand and mortgage supply: Evidence from Switzerland," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 1-22.
    15. Vítor Martins & Alessandro Turrini & Bořek Vašíček & Madalina Zamfir, 2021. "Euro Area Housing Markets: Trends, Challenges and Policy Responses," European Economy - Discussion Papers 147, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    16. Kooths, Stefan & Plödt, Martin & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2014. "Makroprudenzielle Finanzmarktpolitik: Nationale Handlungsoptionen im Euroraum," Kiel Discussion Papers 541/542, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    17. Uwe Vollmer, 2022. "Monetary policy or macroprudential policies: What can tame the cycles?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 1510-1538, December.
    18. D'Orazio, Paola, 2019. "Income inequality, consumer debt, and prudential regulation: An agent-based approach to study the emergence of crises and financial instability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 308-331.
    19. Czerniak, Adam & Borowski, Jakub & Boratyński, Jakub & Rosati, Dariusz, 2020. "Asset price bubbles in a monetary union: Mind the convergence gap," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 288-302.
    20. Tillmann, Peter, 2015. "Estimating the effects of macroprudential policy shocks: A Qual VAR approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 1-4.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Borrower-based macroprudential policy; household micro data and modeling; macro-financial linkages;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20232795. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.