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Micro-assessment of macroprudential borrower-based measures in Lithuania

Author

Listed:
  • Jaunius Karmelavičius

    (Bank of Lithuania)

  • Mantas Dirma

    (Bank of Lithuania)

Abstract

The high-paced growth of the Lithuanian mortgage market may cast doubt on either the efficacy of the country’s macroprudential toolkit, or the appropriateness of its current parametrisation in putting a backstop to excessive dynamics. This paper assesses the adequacy of BBM’s in Lithuania by building a novel lifetime expected credit loss framework that is founded on actual loan-level default and household income data. Based on the modelling framework we document seven findings which are relevant for policymakers. We show that the BBM package effectively contains mortgage credit risk and that housing loans are more resilient to stress than in the pre-regulatory era. Our BBM limit calibration exercise reveals that: i) in the low-interest rate environment income-based measures could have been tighter; ii) borrowers taking out secondary mortgages rightly are and should be required to pledge a higher down payment of at least 30%.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaunius Karmelavičius & Mantas Dirma, 2023. "Micro-assessment of macroprudential borrower-based measures in Lithuania," Bank of Lithuania Occasional Paper Series 46, Bank of Lithuania.
  • Handle: RePEc:lie:opaper:46
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    File URL: https://www.lb.lt/uploads/publications/docs/39827_29060ab941da38b5052729db28b7d301.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Giannoulakis, Stelios & Forletta, Marco & Gross, Marco & Tereanu, Eugen, 2023. "The effectiveness of borrower-based macroprudential policies: a cross-country analysis using an integrated micro-macro simulation model," Working Paper Series 2795, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    macroprudential policy; borrower-based measures; LTV; mortgage credit risk; lifetime expected credit loss; probability of default.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth

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