IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/bejmac/v22y2022i1p1-21n4.html

Supply-side Effects of Pandemic Mortality: Insights from an Overlapping-generations Model

Author

Listed:
  • Gagnon Etienne

    (Federal Reserve Board, 20th Street and Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC, 20551, USA)

  • Johannsen Benjamin K.

    (Federal Reserve Board, 20th Street and Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC, 20551, USA)

  • López-Salido David

    (Federal Reserve Board, 20th Street and Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC, 20551, USA)

Abstract

We use an overlapping-generations model to explore the implications of mortality during pandemics for the economy’s productive capacity. Under current epidemiological projections for the progression of COVID-19, our model suggests that mortality will have, in itself, only small effects on output and factor prices because projected mortality is small in proportion to the population and skewed toward individuals who are retired from the labor force. That said, we show that if the spread of COVID-19 is not contained, or if the ongoing pandemic were to follow a mortality pattern similar to the 1918–1920 Great Influenza pandemic, then the effects on the productive capacity would be economically significant and persist for decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Gagnon Etienne & Johannsen Benjamin K. & López-Salido David, 2022. "Supply-side Effects of Pandemic Mortality: Insights from an Overlapping-generations Model," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(1), pages 1-21, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:22:y:2022:i:1:p:1-21:n:4
    DOI: 10.1515/bejm-2020-0196
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2020-0196
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/bejm-2020-0196?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or

    for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Giuli, Francesco & Maugeri, Gabriele, 2023. "Economic Effects of Covid-19 and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions: applying a SEIRD-Macro Model to Italy," MPRA Paper 118422, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Giuli, Francesco & Maugeri, Gabriele, 2022. "Economic Effects of Covid-19 and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions: applying a SEIRD-RBC Model to Italy," MPRA Paper 114673, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:22:y:2022:i:1:p:1-21:n:4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyterbrill.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.