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Housing-consumption channel of mortgage demand

Author

Listed:
  • Gabriel M Ahlfeldt

    (Humboldt University of Berlin, London School of Economics, CEPR and CESifo)

  • Nikodem Szumilo

    (University College London)

  • Jagdish Tripathy

    (Bank of England)

Abstract

We quantify the housing-consumption channel in mortgage demand according to which households borrow more following house-price increases since housing and non-housing consumption are imperfect substitutes. To identify this channel, we take a structural approach to mortgage demand and supply, exploiting exogenous variation in house-price growth and a unique data set with matched transaction-price and mortgage information. We estimate an elasticity of mortgage borrowing to house-prices of 0.82. Counterfactual analysis of the general-equilibrium of housing and mortgage markets shows that, sans housing-consumption channel, mortgage and house-price growth in the UK would have been 50% and 31% lower, respectively, since the 1990s.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel M Ahlfeldt & Nikodem Szumilo & Jagdish Tripathy, 2024. "Housing-consumption channel of mortgage demand," Bank of England working papers 1086, Bank of England.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:1086
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James Cloyne & Kilian Huber & Ethan Ilzetzki & Henrik Kleven, 2019. "The Effect of House Prices on Household Borrowing: A New Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(6), pages 2104-2136, June.
    2. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2016. "The great mortgaging: housing finance, crises and business cycles," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 31(85), pages 107-152.
    3. Attanasio, Orazio P & Weber, Guglielmo, 1995. "Is Consumption Growth Consistent with Intertemporal Optimization? Evidence from the Consumer Expenditure Survey," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(6), pages 1121-1157, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bram De Rock & Tom Potoms & Mariia Kovaleva, 2025. "Housing wealth, marital stability and labor supply: an intertemporal analysis," IFS Working Papers W25/13, Institute for Fiscal Studies.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    House prices; mortgage demand; housing consumption; consumption channel; property taxes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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