IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecolet/v208y2021ics0165176521003426.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The long-run effects of pandemics on inflation: Will this time be different?

Author

Listed:
  • Bonam, Dennis
  • Smădu, Andra

Abstract

We find that past major pandemics have led to a significant decline in trend inflation in Europe that lasts for more than a decade. The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on trend inflation could, however, be different this time around.

Suggested Citation

  • Bonam, Dennis & Smădu, Andra, 2021. "The long-run effects of pandemics on inflation: Will this time be different?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:208:y:2021:i:c:s0165176521003426
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2021.110065
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176521003426
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econlet.2021.110065?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Oscar Jorda & Sanjay R. Singh & Alan M. Taylor, 2022. "Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(1), pages 166-175, March.
    2. Julian Kozlowski & Laura Veldkamp & Venky Venkateswaran, 2020. "Scarring Body and Mind: The Long-Term Belief-Scarring Effects of COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 27439, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Martin S Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo & Mathias Trabandt, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Epidemics [Economic activity and the spread of viral diseases: Evidence from high frequency data]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5149-5187.
    4. Eichenbaum, Martin S. & Rebelo, Sergio & Trabandt, Mathias, 2022. "Epidemics in the New Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    5. Bilbiie, Florin & Melitz, Marc J, 2020. "Aggregate-Demand Amplification of Supply Disruptions: The Entry-Exit Multiplier," CEPR Discussion Papers 15583, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. David Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2022. "Supply and Demand in Disaggregated Keynesian Economies with an Application to the COVID-19 Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(5), pages 1397-1436, May.
    7. Hugh Rockoff, 2015. "War and Inflation in the United States from the Revolution to the First Iraq War," Departmental Working Papers 201516, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    8. Pablo Martín-Aceña & Elena Martínez-Ruiz & Pilar Nogues-Marco, 2012. "Floating against the Tide: Spanish Monetary Policy 1870–1931," Palgrave Macmillan Studies in Banking and Financial Institutions, in: Anders Ögren & Lars Fredrik Øksendal (ed.), The Gold Standard Peripheries, chapter 8, pages 145-173, Palgrave Macmillan.
    9. Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sérgio & Trabandt, Mathias, 2022. "Epidemics in the Neoclassical and New-Keynesian Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 14903, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2020. "The Pandemic Economic Crisis, Precautionary Behavior, and Mobility Constraints: An Application of the Dynamic Disequilibrium Model with Randomness," NBER Working Papers 27992, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Flavio V Vieira & Cleomar Gomes da Silva, 2024. "Global inflation before and after the covid-19 pandemic: a panel data approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 44(3), pages 889-903.
    2. Dominika Gajdosikova & Katarina Valaskova & Tomas Kliestik & Veronika Machova, 2022. "COVID-19 Pandemic and Its Impact on Challenges in the Construction Sector: A Case Study of Slovak Enterprises," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(17), pages 1-20, September.
    3. Albina Kalimashi & Driton Balaj, 2023. "COVID-19 Impact on the Capital Structure of Commercial Banks: Evidence from the Western Balkans," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 6, pages 76-88.
    4. Olegs Krasnopjorovs, 2022. "Whether Low-Income Households and Retirees Face Higher Inflation? Evidence from Latvia," Post-Print hal-03861129, HAL.
    5. Kazi Ziaul Zafri & Tippawan Lertatthakornkit & Sarana Photchanachan & Tao Zhu & Walton Wider, 2024. "Weathering the Inflationary Storm 2021-2022: Crisis Management Modalities for the Informal Microenterprise Sector," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 14(5), pages 47-61, September.
    6. Lahlou, Kamal & Bennouna , Hicham, 2022. "Contributions des facteurs domestiques et externes à la dynamique de l’inflation au Maroc," Document de travail 2022-1, Bank Al-Maghrib, Département de la Recherche.
    7. Grolleau, Gilles & Weber, Christoph, 2024. "The effect of inflation on CO2 emissions: An analysis over the period 1970–2020," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    8. Khalil Ullah Mohammad & Mohsin Raza Khan, 2021. "Bank Capital Structure Dynamics and Covid-19: Evidence from South Asia," iRASD Journal of Economics, International Research Alliance for Sustainable Development (iRASD), vol. 3(3), pages 293-304, December.
    9. Nicholas Apergis, 2024. "Euro area inflation in the era of COVID‐19: A permanent or a transitory phenomenon?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 92(3), pages 231-245, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Abel Brodeur & David Gray & Anik Islam & Suraiya Bhuiyan, 2021. "A literature review of the economics of COVID‐19," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 1007-1044, September.
    2. Graham, James & Ozbilgin, Murat, 2021. "Age, industry, and unemployment risk during a pandemic lockdown," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    3. Cesar Salinas, 2021. "Epidemics and Informality in Developing Countries," CAEPR Working Papers 2021-002 Classification-E, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    4. Hinterlang, Natascha & Moyen, Stephane & Röhe, Oke & Stähler, Nikolai, 2023. "Gauging the effects of the German COVID-19 fiscal stimulus package," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    5. Vito Polito & Yunyi Zhang, 2021. "Tackling Large Outliers in Macroeconomic Data with Vector Artificial Neural Network Autoregression," CESifo Working Paper Series 9395, CESifo.
    6. Shah, Sayar Ahmad & Garg, Bhavesh, 2023. "Testing policy effectiveness during COVID-19: An NK-DSGE analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    7. Garriga, Carlos & Manuelli, Rody & Sanghi, Siddhartha, 2022. "Optimal management of an epidemic: Lockdown, vaccine and value of life," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    8. Çakmaklı, Cem & Demiralp, Selva & Özcan, Şebnem Kalemli & Yeşiltaş, Sevcan & Yıldırım, Muhammed A., 2023. "COVID-19 and emerging markets: A SIR model, demand shocks and capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    9. Emanuele Colombo Azimonti & Luca Portoghese & Patrizio Tirelli, 2022. "Covid-19 supply-side fiscal policies to escape the health-vs-economy dilemma," DEM Working Papers Series 208, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    10. Bianchi, Francesco & Bianchi, Giada & Song, Dongho, 2023. "The long-term impact of the COVID-19 unemployment shock on life expectancy and mortality rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    11. Willem Thorbecke, 2020. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the U.S. Economy: Evidence from the Stock Market," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-30, October.
    12. Alessandro Di Nola & Leo Kaas & Haomin Wang, 2023. "Rescue policies for small businesses in the Covid-19 recession," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 579-603, December.
    13. Luisa Corrado & Stefano Grassi & Aldo Paolillo, 2021. "Modelling and Estimating Large Macroeconomic Shocks During the Pandemic," CREATES Research Papers 2021-08, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    14. Cardani, Roberta & Croitorov, Olga & Giovannini, Massimo & Pfeiffer, Philipp & Ratto, Marco & Vogel, Lukas, 2022. "The euro area’s pandemic recession: A DSGE-based interpretation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    15. Keiichiro KOBAYASHI & Kengo Nutahara, 2021. "A comparison of behavior-restriction and test-and-isolate policies using an epidemiological model," CIGS Working Paper Series 21-003E, The Canon Institute for Global Studies.
    16. Publishers, KMF & Rahman Tisha, Tajrin, 2021. "Microeconomic impacts of COVID-19 pandemic: A Review Analysis and Policy Recommendations," MPRA Paper 110441, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2021.
    17. Ablam Estel Apeti & Jean-Louis Combes & Xavier Debrun & Alexandru Minea, 2021. "Did Fiscal Space Foster Covid-19's Fiscal Stimuli ?," Post-Print hal-03351634, HAL.
    18. Ascari, Guido & Colciago, Andrea & Silvestrini, Riccardo, 2023. "Business dynamism, sectoral reallocation and productivity in a pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    19. Luis Varona & Jorge R Gonzales, 2021. "Dynamics of the impact of COVID-19 on the economic activity of Peru," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(1), pages 1-30, January.
    20. Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2021. "Macroeconomic effects of COVID‐19: A mid‐term review," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 439-458, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pandemics; Inflation; Local projections;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:208:y:2021:i:c:s0165176521003426. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.