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The long-run effects of pandemics on inflation: Will this time be different?


  • Bonam, Dennis
  • Smădu, Andra


We find that past major pandemics have led to a significant decline in trend inflation in Europe that lasts for more than a decade. The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on trend inflation could, however, be different this time around.

Suggested Citation

  • Bonam, Dennis & Smădu, Andra, 2021. "The long-run effects of pandemics on inflation: Will this time be different?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:208:y:2021:i:c:s0165176521003426
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2021.110065

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Martin S Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo & Mathias Trabandt, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Epidemics [Economic activity and the spread of viral diseases: Evidence from high frequency data]," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5149-5187.
    2. Eichenbaum, Martin S. & Rebelo, Sergio & Trabandt, Mathias, 2022. "Epidemics in the New Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    3. Bilbiie, Florin Ovidiu & Melitz, Marc J, 2020. "Aggregate-Demand Amplification of Supply Disruptions: The Entry-Exit Multiplier," CEPR Discussion Papers 15583, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. David Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2022. "Supply and Demand in Disaggregated Keynesian Economies with an Application to the COVID-19 Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(5), pages 1397-1436, May.
    5. Pablo Martín-Aceña & Elena Martínez-Ruiz & Pilar Nogues-Marco, 2012. "Floating against the Tide: Spanish Monetary Policy 1870–1931," Palgrave Macmillan Studies in Banking and Financial Institutions, in: Anders Ögren & Lars Fredrik Øksendal (ed.), The Gold Standard Peripheries, chapter 8, pages 145-173, Palgrave Macmillan.
    6. Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sérgio & Trabandt, Mathias, 2020. "Epidemics in the Neoclassical and New-Keynesian Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 14903, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Oscar Jorda & Sanjay R. Singh & Alan M. Taylor, 2022. "Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(1), pages 166-175, March.
    8. Julian Kozlowski & Laura Veldkamp & Venky Venkateswaran, 2020. "Scarring Body and Mind: The Long-Term Belief-Scarring Effects of COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 27439, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Hugh Rockoff, 2015. "War and Inflation in the United States from the Revolution to the First Iraq War," Departmental Working Papers 201516, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    10. Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2020. "The Pandemic Economic Crisis, Precautionary Behavior, and Mobility Constraints: An Application of the Dynamic Disequilibrium Model with Randomness," NBER Working Papers 27992, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dominika Gajdosikova & Katarina Valaskova & Tomas Kliestik & Veronika Machova, 2022. "COVID-19 Pandemic and Its Impact on Challenges in the Construction Sector: A Case Study of Slovak Enterprises," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(17), pages 1-20, September.
    2. Lahlou, Kamal & Bennouna , Hicham, 2022. "Contributions des facteurs domestiques et externes à la dynamique de l’inflation au Maroc," Document de travail 2022-1, Bank Al-Maghrib, Département de la Recherche.
    3. Khalil Ullah Mohammad & Mohsin Raza Khan, 2021. "Bank Capital Structure Dynamics and Covid-19: Evidence from South Asia," iRASD Journal of Economics, International Research Alliance for Sustainable Development (iRASD), vol. 3(3), pages 293-304, December.
    4. Olegs Krasnopjorovs, 2022. "Whether Low-Income Households and Retirees Face Higher Inflation? Evidence from Latvia," Post-Print hal-03861129, HAL.

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    More about this item


    Pandemics; Inflation; Local projections;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative


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