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Aggregate-Demand Amplification of Supply Disruptions: The Entry-Exit Multiplier

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  • Bilbiie, Florin
  • Melitz, Marc J

Abstract

Due to its impact on nominal firm profits, price rigidity amplifies the response of entry and exit to adverse supply shocks, such as COVID-19. This "entry-exit multiplier" triggers substantial magnification of the welfare losses due to negative supply shocks---especially when wages are also rigid. This is in stark contrast to the benchmark New Keynesian model (NK), which predicts a positive output gap in response to that same shock under the same monetary policy. Endogenous entry-exit thus radically changes the consequences of nominal rigidities. In addition to the aggregate-demand amplification of supply disruptions, our model also reconciles the response of hours worked across the NK and RBC models. And unlike the standard NK model, our model can also be used to evaluate how monetary expansions can alleviate or even eliminate the negative output gap induced by supply disruptions.

Suggested Citation

  • Bilbiie, Florin & Melitz, Marc J, 2020. "Aggregate-Demand Amplification of Supply Disruptions: The Entry-Exit Multiplier," CEPR Discussion Papers 15583, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15583
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    Cited by:

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    2. Daniel E. Rigobon & Thibaut Duprey & Artur Kotlicki & Philip Schnattinger & Soheil Baharian & Thomas R. Hurd, 2022. "Business Closures and (Re)Openings in Real-Time Using Google Places: Proof of Concept," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-10, April.
    3. Graham, James & Ozbilgin, Murat, 2021. "Age, industry, and unemployment risk during a pandemic lockdown," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    4. Guido Ascari & Andrea Colciago & Riccardo Silvestrini, 2021. "Business Dynamism, Sectoral Reallocation and Productivity in a Pandemic," Working Papers 482, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2021.
    5. Stefano Fasani & Haroon Mumtaz & Lorenza Rossi, 2023. "Monetary Policy and Firm Dynamics," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 47, pages 278-296, January.
    6. Bonam, Dennis & Smădu, Andra, 2021. "The long-run effects of pandemics on inflation: Will this time be different?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    7. Alessandro Di Nola & Leo Kaas & Haomin Wang, . "Rescue policies for small businesses in the Covid-19 recession," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Auerbach, Alan J. & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Murphy, Daniel, 2021. "Inequality, fiscal policy and COVID19 restrictions in a demand-determined economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    9. Hamano, Masashige & Zanetti, Francesco, 2022. "Monetary policy, firm heterogeneity, and product variety," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    10. Pierre Olivier Gourinchas, 2023. "International Macroeconomics: From the Great Financial Crisis to COVID-19, and Beyond," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(1), pages 1-34, March.
    11. Shah, Sayar Ahmad & Garg, Bhavesh, 2023. "Testing policy effectiveness during COVID-19: An NK-DSGE analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    12. Francesco Furlanetto & Kåre Hagelund & Frank Hansen & Ørjan Robstad, 2023. "Norges Bank Output Gap Estimates: Forecasting Properties, Reliability, Cyclical Sensitivity and Hysteresis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(1), pages 238-267, February.
    13. Alessandro Di Nola & Leo Kaas & Haomin Wang, . "Rescue policies for small businesses in the Covid-19 recession," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Entry-exit; Aggregate demand and supply; Variety; Sticky prices; Recessions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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