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Epidemics in the New Keynesian Model

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  • Martin S. Eichenbaum
  • Sergio Rebelo
  • Mathias Trabandt

Abstract

This paper documents the behavior of key macro aggregates in the wake of the Covid epidemic. We show that a unique feature of the Covid recession is that the peak-to-trough decline is roughly the same for consumption, investment, and output. In contrast to the 2008 recession, there was only a short-lived rise in financial stress that quickly subsided. Finally, there was mild deflation between the peak and the trough of the Covid recession. We argue that a New Keynesian model that explicitly incorporates epidemic dynamics captures these qualitative features of the Covid recession. A key feature of the model is that Covid acts like a negative shock to the demand for consumption and the supply of labor.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin S. Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo & Mathias Trabandt, 2020. "Epidemics in the New Keynesian Model," NBER Working Papers 27430, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27430
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    Cited by:

    1. Cardani, Roberta & Pfeiffer, Philipp & Ratto, Marco & Vogel, Lukas, 2023. "The COVID-19 recession on both sides of the Atlantic: A model-based comparison," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    2. Auray, Stéphane & Eyquem, Aurélien, 2020. "The macroeconomic effects of lockdown policies," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    3. Keiichiro KOBAYASHI & Kengo Nutahara, 2021. "A comparison of behavior-restriction and test-and-isolate policies using an epidemiological model," CIGS Working Paper Series 21-003E, The Canon Institute for Global Studies.
    4. Eichenbaum, Martin S. & Rebelo, Sergio & Trabandt, Mathias, 2022. "The macroeconomics of testing and quarantining," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    5. Bonam, Dennis & Smădu, Andra, 2021. "The long-run effects of pandemics on inflation: Will this time be different?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    6. Benmir, Ghassane & Jaccard, Ivan & Vermandel, Gauthier, 2023. "Optimal monetary policy in an estimated SIR model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    7. Bobeica, Elena & Hartwig, Benny, 2021. "The COVID-19 shock and challenges for time series models," Working Paper Series 2558, European Central Bank.
    8. Silvia Muzi & Filip Jolevski & Kohei Ueda & Domenico Viganola, 2023. "Productivity and firm exit during the COVID-19 crisis: cross-country evidence," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 1719-1760, April.
    9. Jacek Rothert, 2021. "Optimal federal transfers during uncoordinated response to a pandemic," GRAPE Working Papers 58, GRAPE Group for Research in Applied Economics.
    10. Muhammad Zubair Chishti, 2023. "COVID-19 and FDI nexus in Pakistan: fresh evidence from QARDL and time-varying casualty techniques," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-18, December.
    11. Cesar Salinas, 2021. "Epidemics and Informality in Developing Countries," CAEPR Working Papers 2021-002 Classification-E, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    12. Publishers, KMF & Rahman Tisha, Tajrin, 2021. "Microeconomic impacts of COVID-19 pandemic: A Review Analysis and Policy Recommendations," MPRA Paper 110441, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2021.
    13. Cardani, Roberta & Croitorov, Olga & Giovannini, Massimo & Pfeiffer, Philipp & Ratto, Marco & Vogel, Lukas, 2022. "The euro area’s pandemic recession: A DSGE-based interpretation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    14. Willem Thorbecke, 2020. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the U.S. Economy: Evidence from the Stock Market," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-30, October.
    15. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/32r3ebde539odb82dkmep529vf is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Luisa Corrado & Stefano Grassi & Aldo Paolillo, 2021. "Modelling and Estimating Large Macroeconomic Shocks During the Pandemic," CREATES Research Papers 2021-08, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    17. Klona, Maria, 2021. "The Days After COVID-19: A Meta-Analysis on the Impact of Epidemics and Pandemics on Long-Term Macro-Economic Performance," American Business Review, Pompea College of Business, University of New Haven, vol. 24(1), pages 188-224, May.
    18. Luis Varona & Jorge R Gonzales, 2021. "Dynamics of the impact of COVID-19 on the economic activity of Peru," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(1), pages 1-30, January.
    19. Emanuele Colombo Azimonti & Luca Portoghese & Patrizio Tirelli, 2022. "Covid-19 supply-side fiscal policies to escape the health-vs-economy dilemma," DEM Working Papers Series 208, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    20. Abdelhamid Moustabchir & Hicham Ouakil, 2023. "Vaccination, treatment and containment policy to reduce the effects of the COVID‐19 pandemic in Morocco," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 35(4), pages 351-364, December.
    21. Trabandt, Mathias, 2023. "Comment on “Optimal monetary policy in an estimated SIR model by G. Benmir, I. Jaccard, and G. Vermandel”," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    22. Faria-e-Castro, Miguel, 2021. "Fiscal policy during a pandemic," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    23. Luisa Corrado & Stefano Grassi & Aldo Paolillo, 2021. "Identifying Economic Shocks in a Rare Disaster Environment," CEIS Research Paper 517, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 19 Nov 2021.
    24. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5e33qpbdeh9pgbbfkkp2ddbtam is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Verónica Acurio Vásconez & Olivier Damette & David W. Shanafelt, 2021. "Macroepidemics and unconventional monetary policy: Coupling macroeconomics and epidemiology in a financial DSGE-SIR framework," Working Papers of BETA 2021-04, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • H0 - Public Economics - - General
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health

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