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Will labor force participation bounce back?

Author

Listed:
  • Leila Bengali
  • Mary C. Daly
  • Robert G. Valletta

Abstract

The most recent U.S. recession and recovery have been accompanied by a sharp decline in the labor force participation rate. The largest declines have occurred in states with the largest job losses. This suggests that some of the recent drop in the national labor force participation rate could be cyclical. Past recoveries show evidence of a similar cyclical relationship between changes in employment and participation, which could portend a moderation or reversal of the participation decline as the current recovery continues.

Suggested Citation

  • Leila Bengali & Mary C. Daly & Robert G. Valletta, 2013. "Will labor force participation bounce back?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue may13.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2013:i:may13:n:2013-14
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christopher J. Erceg & Andrew T. Levin, 2014. "Labor Force Participation and Monetary Policy in the Wake of the Great Recession," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(S2), pages 3-49, October.
    2. Mary C. Daly & Bart Hobijn & Joyce Kwok, 2009. "Labor supply responses to changes in wealth and credit," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jan30.
    3. Daniel Aaronson & Jonathan Davis & Luojia Hu, 2012. "Explaining the decline in the U.S. labor force participation rate," Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Mar.
    4. Mary C. Daly & Early Elias & Bart Hobijn & Òscar Jordà, 2012. "Will the jobless rate drop take a break?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue dec17.
    5. Julie L. Hotchkiss & Fernando Rios-Avila, 2013. "Identifying Factors behind the Decline in the U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 3(1), pages 257-275, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chinn, Menzie & Ferrara, Laurent & Mignon, Valérie, 2014. "Explaining US employment growth after the great recession: The role of output–employment non-linearities," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 118-129.
    2. L. Ferrara. & G. Sestieri., 2014. "US labour market and monetary policy: current debates and challenges," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 36, pages 111-129, winter.
    3. Neumark, David & Shupe, Cortnie, 2019. "Declining teen employment: minimum wages, returns to schooling, and immigration," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 49-68.
    4. Shigeru Fujita, 2014. "On the causes of declines in the labor force participation rate," Research Rap Special Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Feb.

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    Keywords

    Employment; Labor market;

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