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Labor Market Slack and Monetary Policy

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  • David G. Blanchflower
  • Andrew T. Levin

Abstract

In the wake of a severe recession and a sluggish recovery, labor market slack cannot be gauged solely in terms of the conventional measure of the unemployment rate (that is, the number of individuals who are not working at all and actively searching for a job). Rather, assessments of the employment gap should reflect the incidence of underemployment (that is, people working part time who want a full-time job) and the extent of hidden unemployment (that is, people who are not actively searching but who would rejoin the workforce if the job market were stronger). In this paper, we examine the evolution of U.S. labor market slack and show that underemployment and hidden unemployment currently account for the bulk of the U.S. employment gap. Next, using state-level data, we find strong statistical evidence that each of these forms of labor market slack exerts significant downward pressure on nominal wages. Finally, we consider the monetary policy implications of the employment gap in light of prescriptions from Taylor-style benchmark rules.

Suggested Citation

  • David G. Blanchflower & Andrew T. Levin, 2015. "Labor Market Slack and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 21094, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21094
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    12. Stephanie Aaronson & Tomaz Cajner & Bruce Fallick & Felix Galbis-Reig & Christopher Smith & William Wascher, 2014. "Labor Force Participation: Recent Developments and Future Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 45(2 (Fall)), pages 197-275.
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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Borowczyk-Martins & Etienne Lalé, 2016. "The Rise of Part-time Employment," Sciences Po publications 2016-04, Sciences Po.
    2. Augustus J. Panton, 2020. "Climate hysteresis and monetary policy," CAMA Working Papers 2020-76, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Borowczyk-Martins, Daniel & Lalé, Etienne, 2020. "The ins and outs of involuntary part-time employment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    4. Kumar, Anil & M. Orrenius, Pia, 2016. "A closer look at the Phillips curve using state-level data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA), pages 84-102.
    5. George Saridakis & Anne-Marie Mohammed & Jesús M. García-Iglesias & Rebeca I. Muñoz Torres, 2018. "Economy and Divorces: Their Impact Over Time on the Self-Employment Rates in Spain," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 422-435, September.
    6. David N. F. Bell & David G. Blanchflower, 2021. "Underemployment in the United States and Europe," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 74(1), pages 56-94, January.
    7. Shannon Bold & Laurence Harris, 2018. "Identifying monetary policy rules in South Africa with inflation expectations and unemployment," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2018-43, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. Daniel Borowczyk-Martins & Etienne Lalé, 2018. "The welfare effects of involuntary part-time work," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(1), pages 183-205.
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4f4eu80n0h8r28g6dadlk02mtb is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Daniela Dean Avila & Kurt Graden Lunsford, 2022. "Underemployment Following the Great Recession and the COVID-19 Recession," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2022(01), pages 1-6, February.
    11. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7arg7blugi9b2o08qjafcpg8e2 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Lee, Hangyu & Kim, Tae Bong, 2023. "The effectiveness of labor market indicators for conducting monetary policy: Evidence from the Korean economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    13. Bonam, Dennis & de Haan, Jakob & van Limbergen, Duncan, 2021. "Time-varying wage Phillips curves in the euro area with a new measure for labor market slack," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 157-171.
    14. David Blanchflower & Alex Bryson & Jackson Spurling, 2024. "The wage curve after the Great Recession," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 91(362), pages 653-668, April.
    15. Fumitaka Nakamura & Nao Sudo & Yu Sugisaki, 2021. "Monetary Policy Shocks and the Employment of Young, Middle-Aged, and Old Workers," IMES Discussion Paper Series 21-E-06, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    16. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/7arg7blugi9b2o08qjafcpg8e2 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Laurence Harris & Shannon Bold, 2018. "Identifying monetary policy rules in South Africa with inflation expectations and unemployment," WIDER Working Paper Series 43, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    18. Constantinescu, Mihnea & Nguyen, Anh D.M., 2018. "Unemployment or credit: Which one holds the potential? Results for a small open economy with a low degree of financialization," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 649-664.
    19. Zsurkis, Gabriel & Nicolau, João & Rodrigues, Paulo M. M, 2021. "The expected time to cross a threshold and its determinants: a simple and flexible framework," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    20. Donayre, Luiggi & Panovska, Irina, 2018. "U.S. wage growth and nonlinearities: The roles of inflation and unemployment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 273-292.
    21. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/4f4eu80n0h8r28g6dadlk02mtb is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Alex Domash & Lawrence H. Summers, 2022. "How Tight are U.S. Labor Markets?," NBER Working Papers 29739, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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