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Inflation surprises and election outcomes

Author

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  • Federle, Jonathan-Julian
  • Mohr, Cathrin
  • Schularick, Moritz

Abstract

We study the political consequences of inflation surprises, focusing on votes for extremist and populist parties in 365 elections in 18 advanced economies since 1948. Inflation surprises are regularly followed by a substantial increase in vote shares of extremist, anti-system, and populist parties. An inflation surprise of 10 percentage points leads to a 15% increase in their vote share, comparable to the increase typically seen after financial crises. We show that the change in voting behavior is particularly pronounced when real wages decline, and less evident when real wages are not affected. Our paper points to considerable political after-effects of unexpected inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Federle, Jonathan-Julian & Mohr, Cathrin & Schularick, Moritz, 2024. "Inflation surprises and election outcomes," Kiel Working Papers 2278, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:308099
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kristin Forbes & Jongrim Ha & M. Ayhan Kose, 2025. "Tradeoffs over Rate Cycles: Activity, Inflation, and the Price Level," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2025, volume 40, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Tao Chen & Peter Levell & Martin O'Connell, 2025. "Measuring cost of living inequality during an inflation surge," IFS Working Papers W25/21, Institute for Fiscal Studies.

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    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • N40 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative

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