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COVID‐19 and Long‐Term Economic Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Jinji Hao
  • Harry Gregg
  • Yao Yao

Abstract

This article investigates the impact of the COVID‐19 pandemic on the long‐term economic growth of South Africa. We embed an epidemiological model in a modified Solow–Swan model and explore various channels such as morbidity, mortality, unemployment, loss of school days and capital accumulation. We demonstrate that COVID‐19 will lower the average annual growth rate of GDP per capita of South Africa by 0.07 percentage points in the next four decades, a 25 per cent decline relative to the no‐COVID benchmark. We show that human capital losses due to school closures account for more than half of the economic slowdown.

Suggested Citation

  • Jinji Hao & Harry Gregg & Yao Yao, 2023. "COVID‐19 and Long‐Term Economic Growth," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 56(2), pages 221-237, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecr:v:56:y:2023:i:2:p:221-237
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-8462.12500
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jiangfeng Chao & Caiyue Ren & Xiaoli Wu, 2025. "The Dynamic Impact of Epidemic Shock on China’s Macro Economy from the Household Heterogeneity Perspective: Simulation Analysis Based on COVID-19 Data," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 66(3), pages 2503-2521, September.
    2. Gomes Orlando, 2024. "Economic Growth in the Age of Ubiquitous Threats: How Global Risks are Reshaping Growth Theory," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-15, January.

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