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Assessing the historical role of credit: business cycles, financial crises and the legacy of Charles S. Peirce

Listed author(s):
  • Òscar Jordà

This paper provides a historical overview on financial crises and their origins. The objective is to discuss a few of the modern statistical methods that can be used to evaluate predictors of these rare events. The problem involves prediction of binary events and therefore fits modern statistical learning, signal processing theory, and classification methods. The discussion also emphasizes the need to supplement statistics and computational techniques with economics. A forecast’s success in this environment hinges on the economic consequences of the actions taken as a result of the forecast, rather than on typical statistical metrics of prediction accuracy.

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File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/wp2013-19.pdf
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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Working Paper Series with number 2013-19.

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Date of creation: 2013
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2013-19
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  1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8973.
  2. Òscar Jordà & Moritz HP. Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2011. "When Credit Bites Back: Leverage, Business Cycles, and Crises," NBER Working Papers 17621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Wesley Clair Mitchell, 1927. "Business Cycles: The Problem and Its Setting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number mitc27-1.
  4. Granger, Clive W.J. & Machina, Mark J., 2006. "Forecasting and Decision Theory," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  5. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2009. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," NBER Working Papers 15512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2011. "Anchoring countercyclical capital buffers: the role of credit aggregates," BIS Working Papers 355, Bank for International Settlements.
  7. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons," NBER Working Papers 16567, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," NBER Working Papers 5146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Wesley Clair Mitchell, 1927. "Introductory pages to "Business Cycles: The Problem and Its Setting"," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles: The Problem and Its Setting, pages -23 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Claessens, Stijn & Kose, Ayhan & Terrones, Marco E, 2011. "Financial Cycles: What? How? When?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8379, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2011. "Performance Evaluation of Zero Net-Investment Strategies," NBER Working Papers 17150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
  13. Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises; A New Database," IMF Working Papers 08/224, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Maria Dolores Gadea Rivas & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2012. "The failure to predict the Great Recession. The failure of academic economics? A view focusing on the role of credit," Working Papers 1240, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  15. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
  16. Reinhart, Karmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. ""This time is different": panorama of eight centuries of financial crises," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 77-114, March.
  17. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1.
  18. Angus Maddison, 2005. "Measuring And Interpreting World Economic Performance 1500-2001," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 51(1), pages 1-35, 03.
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