IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ove/journl/aid21644.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A model-free test of rational bubbles: an application to the US housing market

Author

Listed:
  • Sergi Basco
  • Maximilian Schäfer-i-Paradís

Abstract

The recent house price appreciation in the United States has renewed the interest in determining the existence of †bubbles†. We provide a model-free test of rational bubbles and apply it to the U.S. housing market. We derive that there exists a bubble when an increase in the current account deficit raises house prices and they are exacerbated in housing supply inelastic municipalities. We apply this test using metropolitan statistical area data between 1990 and 2022. We consider three suspect episodes: (i) 1996-2000, (ii) 2002- 2006 and (ii) 2020-22. Our findings are consistent with the existence of only one housing bubble episode (2002-06).  A strength of this test is that it can be easily applied in real time in any country.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergi Basco & Maximilian Schäfer-i-Paradís, 2025. "A model-free test of rational bubbles: an application to the US housing market," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 117-125.
    • Handle: RePEc:ove:journl:aid:21644
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://reunido.uniovi.es/index.php/EBL/article/view/21644
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2008. "An Equilibrium Model of "Global Imbalances" and Low Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 358-393, March.
    2. Ricardo J. Caballero, 2010. "Macroeconomics after the Crisis: Time to Deal with the Pretense-of-Knowledge Syndrome," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(4), pages 85-102, Fall.
    3. Thomas Chaney & David Sraer & David Thesmar, 2012. "The Collateral Channel: How Real Estate Shocks Affect Corporate Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2381-2409, October.
    4. Òscar Jordà & Katharina Knoll & Dmitry Kuvshinov & Moritz Schularick & Alan M Taylor, 2019. "The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(3), pages 1225-1298.
    5. Albert Saiz, 2010. "The Geographic Determinants of Housing Supply," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(3), pages 1253-1296.
    6. Glaeser, Edward L. & Gyourko, Joseph & Saiz, Albert, 2008. "Housing supply and housing bubbles," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 198-217, September.
    7. Basco, Sergi, 2014. "Globalization and financial development: A model of the Dot-Com and the Housing Bubbles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 78-94.
    8. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2011. "House Prices, Home Equity-Based Borrowing, and the US Household Leverage Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2132-2156, August.
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/75koqefued8i7pihbrl9u84p4u is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Stefano Giglio & Matteo Maggiori & Johannes Stroebel, 2016. "No‐Bubble Condition: Model‐Free Tests in Housing Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 1047-1091, May.
    11. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/75koqefued8i7pihbrl9u84p4u is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alberto Martín & Enrique Moral-Benito & Tom Schmitz, 2018. "The Financial Transmission of Housing Bubbles: Evidence from Spain," Working Papers 625, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    2. Vicente Cuñat & Dragana Cvijanović & Kathy Yuan, 2018. "Within-Bank Spillovers of Real Estate Shocks," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(2), pages 157-193.
    3. Nuri Ersahin & Rustom M. Irani, 2015. "Collateral Values and Corporate Employment," Working Papers 15-30, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    4. Nuri Ersahin & Rustom M. Irani, 2015. "Collateral Values and Corporate Employment," Working Papers 15-30r, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    5. Bing Lu & Xiaofen Tan & Jinhui Zhang, 2019. "The crowding out effect of booming real estate markets on corporate TFP: evidence from China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(5), pages 1319-1345, March.
    6. Aditya Aladangady, 2014. "Homeowner Balance Sheets and Monetary Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-98, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Flannery, Mark J. & Lin, Leming & Wang, Luxi, 2022. "Housing booms and bank growth," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    8. Alberto Martín & Enrique Moral-Benito & Tom Schmitz, 2021. "The Financial Transmission of Housing Booms: Evidence from Spain," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(3), pages 1013-1053, March.
    9. Daisuke Ikeda & Toan Phan & Timothy Sablik, 2020. "Asset Bubbles and Global Imbalances," Richmond Fed Economic Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 20, pages 1-4, January.
    10. Nicholas Kacher & Luke Petach, 2021. "Boon or Burden? Evaluating the Competing Effects of House-Price Shocks on Regional Entrepreneurship," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 35(4), pages 287-304, November.
    11. Guedes, Ricardo & Iachan, Felipe S. & Sant’Anna, Marcelo, 2023. "Housing supply in the presence of informality," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    12. Sebastiaan Pool, 2018. "Mortgage debt and shadow banks," DNB Working Papers 588, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    13. Zhenyu Gao & Michael Sockin & Wei Xiong, 2020. "Learning about the Neighborhood," NBER Working Papers 26907, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Rebecca Diamond, 2017. "Housing Supply Elasticity and Rent Extraction by State and Local Governments," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 74-111, February.
    15. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/75koqefued8i7pihbrl9u84p4u is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Christian A. L. Hilber & Tracy M. Turner, 2024. "Land use regulation, homeownership and wealth inequality," CEP Discussion Papers dp2003, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    17. Adelino, Manuel & Schoar, Antoinette & Severino, Felipe, 2015. "House prices, collateral, and self-employment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 288-306.
    18. Hiller, Norbert & Lerbs, Oliver W., 2016. "Aging and urban house prices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 276-291.
    19. Sergi Basco & Jair N. Ojeda-Joya, 2024. "House Prices and International Remittances: Evidence from Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1273, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    20. Jean‐Noël Barrot & Erik Loualiche & Matthew Plosser & Julien Sauvagnat, 2022. "Import Competition and Household Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(6), pages 3037-3091, December.
    21. Piazzesi, M. & Schneider, M., 2016. "Housing and Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1547-1640, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ove:journl:aid:21644. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Francisco J. Delgado (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deovies.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.