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Estimating the causal relationship between foreclosures and unemployment during the great recession

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  • Rana, Ghulam Awais
  • Shea, Paul

Abstract

Using a local projection method, we estimate the relationship among unemployment, foreclosures, and housing prices. More foreclosures cause a major increase in unemployment and a large decrease in housing prices. Higher housing prices, however, have only small effects on unemployment and foreclosures.

Suggested Citation

  • Rana, Ghulam Awais & Shea, Paul, 2015. "Estimating the causal relationship between foreclosures and unemployment during the great recession," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 90-93.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:134:y:2015:i:c:p:90-93
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2015.06.019
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
    2. Zhenguo Lin & Eric Rosenblatt & Vincent Yao, 2009. "Spillover Effects of Foreclosures on Neighborhood Property Values," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 387-407, May.
    3. Charles Towe & Chad Lawley, 2013. "The Contagion Effect of Neighboring Foreclosures," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 313-335, May.
    4. Òscar Jordà, 2005. "Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 161-182, March.
    5. Charles W. Calomiris & Stanley D. Longhofer & William R. Miles, 2013. "The Foreclosure–House Price Nexus: A Panel VAR Model for U.S. States, 1981–2009," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 41(4), pages 709-746, December.
    6. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 3-33, February.
    7. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
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    Cited by:

    1. Teimouri, Sheida & Zietz, Joachim, 2020. "Coping with deindustrialization: A panel study for early OECD countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 26-41.
    2. Jacek Rothert & Ryan Brady & Michael Insler, 2020. "The Fragmented United States of America: The impact of scattered lock-down policies on country-wide infections," Departmental Working Papers 65, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
    3. Ryan R. Brady, 2021. "Direct Forecasting for Applied Regional Analysis," Departmental Working Papers 67, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
    4. Jacek Rothert & Ryan Brady & Michael Insler, 2020. "Local containment policies and country-wide spread of Covid-19 in the United States: an epidemiological analysis," GRAPE Working Papers 48, GRAPE Group for Research in Applied Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing; Local projection; Foreclosures; US state data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

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