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The Contagion Effect of Neighboring Foreclosures

Author

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  • Charles Towe
  • Chad Lawley

Abstract

We examine the contagion effect of residential foreclosures and find strong evidence of a social interactions influence on default decisions where the interaction is based on neighbors? behavior in a previous period. Using a unique spatially explicit parcel-level dataset documenting residential foreclosures in Maryland for the years 2006-2009 and a highly localized neighborhood definition, based on 13 nearest neighbors, we find that a neighbor in foreclosure increases the hazard of additional defaults by 18 percent. This feedback effect goes beyond a temporary reduction in local house prices and implies a negative social multiplier effect of foreclosures. (JEL R23, R31)

Suggested Citation

  • Charles Towe & Chad Lawley, 2013. "The Contagion Effect of Neighboring Foreclosures," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 313-335, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejpol:v:5:y:2013:i:2:p:313-35
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/pol.5.2.313
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Patrick Bajari & Chenghuan Sean Chu & Minjung Park, 2008. "An Empirical Model of Subprime Mortgage Default From 2000 to 2007," NBER Working Papers 14625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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