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Foreclosure externalities: Some new evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Kristopher S. Gerardi
  • Eric Rosenblatt
  • Paul S. Willen
  • Vincent W. Yao

Abstract

In a recent set of influential papers, researchers have argued that residential mortgage foreclosures reduce the sale prices of nearby properties. We revisit this issue using a more robust identification strategy combined with new data that contain information on the location of properties secured by seriously delinquent mortgages and information on the condition of foreclosed properties. We find that while properties in virtually all stages of distress have statistically significant, negative effects on nearby home values, the magnitudes are economically small, peak before the distressed properties complete the foreclosure process, and go to zero about a year after the bank sells the property to a new homeowner. The estimates are very sensitive to the condition of the distressed property, with a positive correlation existing between house price growth and foreclosed properties identified as being in "above average" condition. We argue that the most plausible explanation for these results is an externality resulting from reduced investment by owners of distressed property. Our analysis shows that policies that slow the transition from delinquency to foreclosure likely exacerbate the negative effect of mortgage distress on house prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Kristopher S. Gerardi & Eric Rosenblatt & Paul S. Willen & Vincent W. Yao, 2012. "Foreclosure externalities: Some new evidence," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2012-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2012-11
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. William H. Rogers & William Winter, 2009. "The Impact of Foreclosures on Neighboring Housing Sales," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 31(4), pages 455-480.
    2. Esteban Rossi-Hansberg & Pierre-Daniel Sarte & Raymond Owens, 2010. "Housing Externalities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(3), pages 485-535, June.
    3. Anthony Pennington-Cross, 2006. "The Value of Foreclosed Property," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 28(2), pages 193-214.
    4. Kristopher S. Gerardi & Adam Hale Shapiro & Paul S. Willen, 2007. "Subprime outcomes: risky mortgages, homeownership experiences, and foreclosures," Working Papers 07-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    5. Schuetz, Jenny & Been, Vicki & Ellen, Ingrid Gould, 2008. "Neighborhood effects of concentrated mortgage foreclosures," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 306-319, December.
    6. Leigh Linden & Jonah E. Rockoff, 2008. "Estimates of the Impact of Crime Risk on Property Values from Megan's Laws," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 1103-1127, June.
    7. Harding, John P. & Rosenblatt, Eric & Yao, Vincent W., 2009. "The contagion effect of foreclosed properties," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 164-178, November.
    8. Hartley, Daniel, 2014. "The effect of foreclosures on nearby housing prices: Supply or dis-amenity?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 108-117.
    9. John Y. Campbell & Stefano Giglio & Parag Pathak, 2011. "Forced Sales and House Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2108-2131, August.
    10. Schwartz, Amy Ellen & Ellen, Ingrid Gould & Voicu, Ioan & Schill, Michael H., 2006. "The external effects of place-based subsidized housing," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 679-707, November.
    11. Kristopher S. Gerardi & Adam Hale Shapiro & Paul S. Willen, 2009. "Decomposing the foreclosure crisis: House price depreciation versus bad underwriting," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2009-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    12. Terrence M. Clauretie & Nasser Daneshvary, 2009. "Estimating the House Foreclosure Discount Corrected for Spatial Price Interdependence and Endogeneity of Marketing Time," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 37(1), pages 43-67.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alm, James & Buschman, Robert D. & Sjoquist, David L., 2014. "Foreclosures and local government revenues from the property tax: The case of Georgia school districts," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 1-11.
    2. Adam M. Guren & Timothy J. McQuade, "undated". "How Do Foreclosures Exacerbate Housing Downturns?," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2018-007, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    3. Ihlanfeldt, Keith & Mayock, Tom, 2015. "Foreclosures and local government budgets," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 135-147.
    4. Paul S. Calem & Julapa Jagtiani & William W. Lang, 2017. "Foreclosure Delay and Consumer Credit Performance," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 225-251, December.
    5. Ellen, Ingrid Gould & Lacoe, Johanna & Sharygin, Claudia Ayanna, 2013. "Do foreclosures cause crime?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 59-70.
    6. Chan, Sewin & Haughwout, Andrew & Tracy, Joseph, 2015. "How Mortgage Finance Affects the Urban Landscape," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, Elsevier.
    7. Lynn M. Fisher & Lauren Lambie-Hanson & Paul S. Willen, 2014. "The Role of Proximity in Foreclosure Externalities: Evidence from Condominiums," NBER Working Papers 20080, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Xu, Yilan, 2014. "Does mortgage deregulation increase foreclosures? Evidence from Cleveland," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 126-139.
    9. Bradbury, Katharine L. & Burke, Mary A. & Triest, Robert K., 2014. "Within-school spillover effects of foreclosures and student mobility on student academic performance," Working Papers 15-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    10. Kelly, Robert & McCann, Fergal, 2016. "Some defaults are deeper than others: Understanding long-term mortgage arrears," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 15-27.
    11. Lauren Lambie-Hanson, 2013. "When does delinquency result in neglect?: mortgage delinquency and property maintenance," Public Policy Discussion Paper 13-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    12. Remco Mocking & Bastiaan Overvest, 2015. "Estimating the Impact of Forced Sales on House Prices," CPB Discussion Paper 304, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    13. Andrew F. Haughwout & Sarah Sutherland & Joseph Tracy, 2013. "Negative equity and housing investment," Staff Reports 636, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    14. Elliot Anenberg & Edward Kung, 2012. "Estimates of the size and source of price declines due to nearby foreclosures: evidence from San Francisco," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-84, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Cheung, Ron & Cunningham, Chris & Meltzer, Rachel, 2014. "Do homeowners associations mitigate or aggravate negative spillovers from neighboring homeowner distress?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 75-88.
    16. Hartley, Daniel, 2014. "The effect of foreclosures on nearby housing prices: Supply or dis-amenity?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 108-117.
    17. Schuetz, Jenny & Spader, Jonathan & Buell, Jennifer Lewis & Burnett, Kimberly & Buron, Larry & Cortes, Alvaro & DiDomenico, Michael & Jefferson, Anna & Redfearn, Christian & Whitlow, Stephen, 2015. "Which Way to Recovery? Housing Market Outcomes and the Neighborhood Stabilization Program," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-4, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Lynn Fisher & Lauren Lambie-Hanson & Paul S. Willen, 2013. "The role of proximity in foreclosure externalities: evidence from condominiums," Public Policy Discussion Paper 13-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    19. Johnson, Michael P. & Solak, Senay & Drew, Rachel Bogardus & Keisler, Jeffrey, 2013. "Property value impacts of foreclosed housing acquisitions under uncertainty," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 47(4), pages 292-308.
    20. Joanne W. Hsu & David A. Matsa & Brian T. Melzer, 2014. "Positive Externalities of Social Insurance: Unemployment Insurance and Consumer Credit," NBER Working Papers 20353, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • R20 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - General
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General

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