IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/18353.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Foreclosure externalities: Some new evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Kristopher Gerardi
  • Eric Rosenblatt
  • Paul S. Willen
  • Vincent Yao

Abstract

In a recent set of influential papers, researchers have argued that residential mortgage foreclosures reduce the sale prices of nearby properties. We revisit this issue using a more robust identification strategy combined with new data that contain information on the location of properties secured by seriously delinquent mortgages and information on the condition of foreclosed properties. We find that while properties in virtually all stages of distress have statistically significant, negative effects on nearby home values, the magnitudes are economically small, peak before the distressed properties complete the foreclosure process, and go to zero about a year after the bank sells the property to a new homeowner. The estimates are very sensitive to the condition of the distressed property, with a positive correlation existing between house price growth and foreclosed properties identified as being in "above average" condition. We argue that the most plausible explanation for these results is an externality resulting from reduced investment by owners of distressed property. Our analysis shows that policies that slow the transition from delinquency to foreclosure likely exacerbate the negative effect of mortgage distress on house prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Kristopher Gerardi & Eric Rosenblatt & Paul S. Willen & Vincent Yao, 2012. "Foreclosure externalities: Some new evidence," NBER Working Papers 18353, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18353
    Note: EFG
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w18353.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Esteban Rossi-Hansberg & Pierre-Daniel Sarte & Raymond Owens, 2010. "Housing Externalities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(3), pages 485-535, June.
    2. Kristopher S. Gerardi & Adam Hale Shapiro & Paul S. Willen, 2007. "Subprime outcomes: risky mortgages, homeownership experiences, and foreclosures," Working Papers 07-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    3. Kristopher S. Gerardi & Adam Hale Shapiro & Paul S. Willen, 2009. "Decomposing the foreclosure crisis: House price depreciation versus bad underwriting," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2009-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    4. Anthony Pennington-Cross, 2006. "The Value of Foreclosed Property," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 28(2), pages 193-214.
    5. Hartley, Daniel, 2014. "The effect of foreclosures on nearby housing prices: Supply or dis-amenity?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 108-117.
    6. William H. Rogers & William Winter, 2009. "The Impact of Foreclosures on Neighboring Housing Sales," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 31(4), pages 455-480.
    7. W. Scott Frame, 2010. "Estimating the effect of mortgage foreclosures on nearby property values: a critical review of the literature," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 95(3).
    8. Daniel Immergluck & Geoff Smith, 2005. "The impact of single-family mortgage foreclosures on neighborhood crime," Proceedings 955, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    9. Schuetz, Jenny & Been, Vicki & Ellen, Ingrid Gould, 2008. "Neighborhood effects of concentrated mortgage foreclosures," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 306-319, December.
    10. Leigh Linden & Jonah E. Rockoff, 2008. "Estimates of the Impact of Crime Risk on Property Values from Megan's Laws," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 1103-1127, June.
    11. Harding, John P. & Rosenblatt, Eric & Yao, Vincent W., 2009. "The contagion effect of foreclosed properties," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 164-178, November.
    12. John Y. Campbell & Stefano Giglio & Parag Pathak, 2011. "Forced Sales and House Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2108-2131, August.
    13. Schwartz, Amy Ellen & Ellen, Ingrid Gould & Voicu, Ioan & Schill, Michael H., 2006. "The external effects of place-based subsidized housing," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 679-707, November.
    14. Terrence M. Clauretie & Nasser Daneshvary, 2009. "Estimating the House Foreclosure Discount Corrected for Spatial Price Interdependence and Endogeneity of Marketing Time," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 37(1), pages 43-67, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Paul S. Calem & Julapa Jagtiani & William W. Lang, 2017. "Foreclosure Delay and Consumer Credit Performance," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 225-251, December.
    2. Ihlanfeldt, Keith & Mayock, Tom, 2015. "Foreclosures and local government budgets," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 135-147.
    3. Lynn M. Fisher & Lauren Lambie-Hanson & Paul Willen, 2015. "The Role of Proximity in Foreclosure Externalities: Evidence from Condominiums," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 119-140, February.
    4. Adam M Guren & Timothy J McQuade, 2020. "How Do Foreclosures Exacerbate Housing Downturns?," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 1331-1364.
    5. Kelly, Robert & McCann, Fergal, 2016. "Some defaults are deeper than others: Understanding long-term mortgage arrears," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 15-27.
    6. Hartley, Daniel, 2014. "The effect of foreclosures on nearby housing prices: Supply or dis-amenity?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 108-117.
    7. Katharine L. Bradbury & Mary A. Burke & Robert K. Triest, 2014. "Within-school spillover effects of foreclosures and student mobility on student academic performance," Working Papers 15-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    8. Cheung, Ron & Cunningham, Chris & Meltzer, Rachel, 2014. "Do homeowners associations mitigate or aggravate negative spillovers from neighboring homeowner distress?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 75-88.
    9. Joanne W. Hsu & David A. Matsa & Brian T. Melzer, 2014. "Positive Externalities of Social Insurance: Unemployment Insurance and Consumer Credit," NBER Working Papers 20353, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Chan, Sewin & Haughwout, Andrew & Tracy, Joseph, 2015. "How Mortgage Finance Affects the Urban Landscape," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 987-1045, Elsevier.
    11. Elliot Anenberg & Edward Kung, 2012. "Estimates of the size and source of price declines due to nearby foreclosures: evidence from San Francisco," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-84, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Remco Mocking & Bastiaan Overvest, 2015. "Estimating the Impact of Forced Sales on House Prices," CPB Discussion Paper 304.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    13. Johnson, Michael P. & Solak, Senay & Drew, Rachel Bogardus & Keisler, Jeffrey, 2013. "Property value impacts of foreclosed housing acquisitions under uncertainty," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 47(4), pages 292-308.
    14. Alm, James & Buschman, Robert D. & Sjoquist, David L., 2014. "Foreclosures and local government revenues from the property tax: The case of Georgia school districts," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 1-11.
    15. Ellen, Ingrid Gould & Lacoe, Johanna & Sharygin, Claudia Ayanna, 2013. "Do foreclosures cause crime?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 59-70.
    16. Xu, Yilan, 2014. "Does mortgage deregulation increase foreclosures? Evidence from Cleveland," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 126-139.
    17. Lauren Lambie-Hanson, 2013. "When does delinquency result in neglect?: mortgage delinquency and property maintenance," Public Policy Discussion Paper 13-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    18. Remco Mocking & Bastiaan Overvest, 2015. "Estimating the Impact of Forced Sales on House Prices," CPB Discussion Paper 304, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    19. Andrew F. Haughwout & Sarah Sutherland & Joseph Tracy, 2013. "Negative equity and housing investment," Staff Reports 636, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    20. Jennifer Lewis Buell & Kimberly Burnett & Larry Buron & Alvaro Cortes & Michael DiDomenico & Anna Jefferson & Christian Redfearn & Jenny Schuetz & Jonathan Spader & Stephen Whitlow, 2015. "Which Way to Recovery? Housing Market Outcomes and the Neighborhood Stabilization Program," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-4, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gerardi, Kristopher & Rosenblatt, Eric & Willen, Paul S. & Yao, Vincent, 2015. "Foreclosure externalities: New evidence," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 42-56.
    2. Ying Huang & Ronald W. Spahr & Mark A. Sunderman, 2020. "The Impact of Default and Foreclosure on Housing Values: Rings Vs. Neighborhoods Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 338-374, April.
    3. Sadayuki, Taisuke, 2018. "Measuring the spatial effect of multiple sites: An application to housing rent and public transportation in Tokyo, Japan," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 155-173.
    4. Chan, Sewin & Gedal, Michael & Been, Vicki & Haughwout, Andrew, 2013. "The role of neighborhood characteristics in mortgage default risk: Evidence from New York City," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 100-118.
    5. Lambie-Hanson, Lauren, 2015. "When does delinquency result in neglect? Mortgage distress and property maintenance," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 1-16.
    6. Jeffrey P. Cohen & Cletus C. Coughlin & David A. Lopez, 2012. "The boom and bust of U.S. housing prices from various geographic perspectives," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 341-368.
    7. Tammy Leonard & Nikhil Jha & Lei Zhang, 2017. "Neighborhood price externalities of foreclosure rehabilitation: an examination of the Neighborhood Stabilization Program," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 955-975, May.
    8. Anthony Yezer & Yishen Liu, 2017. "Can Differences Deceive? The Case of “Foreclosure Externalities"," Working Papers 2017-29, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    9. Jeffrey P. Cohen & Cletus C. Coughlin & Vincent W. Yao, 2016. "Sales of Distressed Residential Property: What Have We Learned from Recent Research?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 98(3), pages 159-188.
    10. Anthony Yezer, 2016. "Testing the Association between Foreclosure and Nearby House Values: Can Differences Deceive?," Working Papers 2016-29, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    11. Jennifer Lewis Buell & Kimberly Burnett & Larry Buron & Alvaro Cortes & Michael DiDomenico & Anna Jefferson & Christian Redfearn & Jenny Schuetz & Jonathan Spader & Stephen Whitlow, 2015. "Which Way to Recovery? Housing Market Outcomes and the Neighborhood Stabilization Program," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-4, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Ellen, Ingrid Gould & Lacoe, Johanna & Sharygin, Claudia Ayanna, 2013. "Do foreclosures cause crime?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 59-70.
    13. John Y. Campbell & Stefano Giglio & Parag Pathak, 2011. "Forced Sales and House Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2108-2131, August.
    14. W. Scott Frame, 2010. "Estimating the effect of mortgage foreclosures on nearby property values: a critical review of the literature," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 95(3).
    15. Bak, Xian F. & Hewings, Geoffrey J.D., 2017. "Measuring foreclosure impact mitigation: Evidence from the Neighborhood Stabilization Program in Chicago," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 38-56.
    16. Whitaker, Stephan & Fitzpatrick IV, Thomas J., 2013. "Deconstructing distressed-property spillovers: The effects of vacant, tax-delinquent, and foreclosed properties in housing submarkets," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 79-91.
    17. Janet Currie & Erdal Tekin, 2015. "Is There a Link between Foreclosure and Health?," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 63-94, February.
    18. Mocking, Remco & Overvest, Bastiaan, 2017. "Direct and spillover effects of forced sales on house prices: Evidence from the Netherlands," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 50-61.
    19. Taisuke Sadayuki, 2017. "Measuring the spatial effect of multiple sites," RIEEM Discussion Paper Series 1703, Research Institute for Environmental Economics and Management, Waseda University.
    20. Hartley, Daniel, 2014. "The effect of foreclosures on nearby housing prices: Supply or dis-amenity?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 108-117.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • R20 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - General
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18353. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.