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The Historical Effects of Banking Distress on Economic Activity

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  • Falk Bräuning
  • Viacheslav Sheremirov

Abstract

The failures of several U.S. regional banks have stimulated discussions about the macroeconomic effects of a likely credit contraction triggered by the recent banking turmoil. Drawing on historical evidence from advanced economies, this study documents a sizable and persistent decline in output and rise in unemployment following non-systemic financial distress. The effects of a systemic banking crisis are two to four times as large. High corporate leverage exacerbates banking turmoil, whereas high bank capitalization and a relatively large share of market financing in corporate debt mitigate it. These channels approximately offset one another so that the estimates tailored to the current U.S. economy are in line with the average effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Falk Bräuning & Viacheslav Sheremirov, 2023. "The Historical Effects of Banking Distress on Economic Activity," Current Policy Perspectives 96216, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbcq:96216
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    banking distress; real economy; financial crises;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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