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The real estate and credit bubble: Evidence from Spain

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Abstract

We analyze the determinants of real estate and credit bubbles using a unique borrower-lender matched dataset on mortgage loans in Spain. The dataset contain real estate credit and price conditions (loan principal and spread, and the appraisal and market price) at the mortgage level, matched with borrower characteristics (such as income, labor status and contract) and the lender identity, over the last credit boom and bust. We find that lending standards are softer in the boom than in the bust. Moreover, despite some adjustment in lending conditions in the good times depending on borrower risk, the results suggest too soft lending standards and excessive risk-taking in the boom. For example, mortgage spreads for non-employed are identical to employed borrowers during the boom. Banks with worse corporate governance problems soften even more the standards. Finally, we analyze the mechanism by which banks could increase the supply of mortgage loans despite of regulatory restrictions on LTVs. The evidence is consistent with banks encouraging real estate appraisal firms to introduce an upward bias in appraisal prices (29%), to meet loan-to-value regulatory thresholds (40% of mortgages are just bunched on these limits), thus building-up the credit and the real estate bubble.

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  • Ozlem Akin & José Garcia Montalvo & Jaume Garcia Villar & José-Luis Peydró & Josep M. Raya, 2014. "The real estate and credit bubble: Evidence from Spain," Economics Working Papers 1430, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    • Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:1430
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    1. repec:bla:germec:v:18:y:2017:i:2:p:133-153 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Mayer, Eric & Maas, Daniel & Rüth, Sebastian, 2016. "Current Account Dynamics and the Housing Cycle in Spain," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145824, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Maas, Daniel & Mayer, Eric & Rüth, Sebastian, 2015. "Current account dynamics and the housing boom and bust cycle in Spain," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 94, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
    4. repec:eee:finsta:v:33:y:2017:i:c:p:244-260 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:wsi:serxxx:v:62:y:2017:i:01:n:s0217590817400057 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Rubio, Margarita & Carrasco-Gallego, José A., 2016. "Coordinating macroprudential policies within the Euro area: The case of Spain," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 570-582.
    7. Josep Maria Raya & Aleksander Kucel, 2016. "Did Housing Taxation Contribute to Increase Riskier Borrowing?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 90-113, July.
    8. Juan Jimeno & Tano Santos, 2014. "The crisis of the Spanish economy," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 125-141, August.
    9. Bouyon, Sylvain & Musmeci, Roberto, 2016. "Two Dimensions of Combating Over-Indebtedness: Consumer protection and financial stability," ECRI Papers 11930, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    10. José García-Montalvo & Josep M. Raya, 2017. "Constraints on LTV as a Macroprudential Tool: A Precautionary Tale," Working Papers 1008, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    11. José Garcia Montalvo & Josep M. Raya, 2017. "Constraints on LTV as a macroprudential tool: a precautionary tale," Economics Working Papers 1592, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.

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    Keywords

    Lending standards; credit supply; excessive risk-taking; bank incentives; conflicts of interest; moral hazard; prudential policy; financial crises; real estate bubble.;

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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