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The real estate and credit bubble: Evidence from Spain

Abstract

We analyze the determinants of real estate and credit bubbles using a unique borrower-lender matched dataset on mortgage loans in Spain. The dataset contain real estate credit and price conditions (loan principal and spread, and the appraisal and market price) at the mortgage level, matched with borrower characteristics (such as income, labor status and contract) and the lender identity, over the last credit boom and bust. We find that lending standards are softer in the boom than in the bust. Moreover, despite some adjustment in lending conditions in the good times depending on borrower risk, the results suggest too soft lending standards and excessive risk-taking in the boom. For example, mortgage spreads for non-employed are identical to employed borrowers during the boom. Banks with worse corporate governance problems soften even more the standards. Finally, we analyze the mechanism by which banks could increase the supply of mortgage loans despite of regulatory restrictions on LTVs. The evidence is consistent with banks encouraging real estate appraisal firms to introduce an upward bias in appraisal prices (29%), to meet loan-to-value regulatory thresholds (40% of mortgages are just bunched on these limits), thus building-up the credit and the real estate bubble.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra in its series Economics Working Papers with number 1430.

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Date of creation: Jul 2014
Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:1430
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.econ.upf.edu/

Keywords: Lending standards; credit supply; excessive risk-taking; bank incentives; conflicts of interest; moral hazard; prudential policy; financial crises; real estate bubble.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
  • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
  • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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  1. Timothy Besley & Neil Meads & Paolo Surico, 2013. "Risk Heterogeneity and Credit Supply: Evidence from the Mortgage Market," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 375-419.
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  16. Angela Maddaloni & Jose-Luis Peydro, 2011. "Bank Risk-taking, Securitization, Supervision, and Low Interest Rates: Evidence from the Euro-area and the U.S. Lending Standards," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(6), pages 2121-2165.
  17. Reinhart, Karmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. ""This time is different": panorama of eight centuries of financial crises," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 77-114, March.
  18. Xavier Freixas & Jean-Charles Rochet, 2008. "Microeconomics of Banking, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262062704, July.
  19. Itzhak Ben-David, 2011. "Financial Constraints and Inflated Home Prices during the Real Estate Boom," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 55-87, July.
  20. Benjamin J. Keys & Tanmoy Mukherjee & Amit Seru & Vikrant Vig, 2010. "Did Securitization Lead to Lax Screening? Evidence from Subprime Loans," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 125(1), pages 307-362.
  21. Leonard I. Nakamura, 2010. "How much is that home really worth? Appraisal bias and house-price uncertainty," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q1, pages 11-22.
  22. Viral V Acharya & Philipp Schnabl, 2010. "Do Global Banks Spread Global Imbalances? Asset-Backed Commercial Paper during the Financial Crisis of 2007–09," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 58(1), pages 37-73, August.
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Cited by:

  1. Mayer, Eric & Maas, Daniel & Rüth, Sebastian, 2016. "Current Account Dynamics and the Housing Cycle in Spain," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145824, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  2. Maas, Daniel & Mayer, Eric & Rüth, Sebastian, 2015. "Current account dynamics and the housing boom and bust cycle in Spain," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 94, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
  3. Rubio, Margarita & Carrasco-Gallego, José A., 2016. "Coordinating macroprudential policies within the Euro area: The case of Spain," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 570-582.
  4. Josep Maria Raya & Aleksander Kucel, 2016. "Did Housing Taxation Contribute to Increase Riskier Borrowing?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 90-113, July.
  5. Juan Jimeno & Tano Santos, 2014. "The crisis of the Spanish economy," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 125-141, August.
  6. Bouyon, Sylvain & Musmeci, Roberto, 2016. "Two Dimensions of Combating Over-Indebtedness: Consumer protection and financial stability," ECRI Papers 11930, Centre for European Policy Studies.

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