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Risk heterogeneity and credit supply: evidence from the mortgage market

Author

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  • Bealey, Timothy
  • Meads, Neil
  • Surico, Paolo

Abstract

This paper uses a unique data set on more than 600,000 mortgage contracts to estimate a credit supply function which allows for risk-heterogeneity. Non-linearity is modelled using quantile regressions. We propose an instrumental variable approach in which changes in the tax treatment of housing transactions are used as an instrument for loan demand. The results are suggestive of considerable risk heterogeneity with riskier borrowers penalised more for borrowing more.

Suggested Citation

  • Bealey, Timothy & Meads, Neil & Surico, Paolo, 2010. "Risk heterogeneity and credit supply: evidence from the mortgage market," MPRA Paper 20905, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:20905
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/20905/1/MPRA_paper_20905.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2008. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the 2007 Mortgage Default Crisis," NBER Working Papers 13936, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Richard Blundell & Alan Duncan & Costas Meghir, 1998. "Estimating Labor Supply Responses Using Tax Reforms," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(4), pages 827-862, July.
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    4. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2009. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the U.S. Mortgage Default Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 124(4), pages 1449-1496.
    5. Gabriel Jimenez & Steven Ongena & Jose-Luis Peydro & Jesus Saurina, 2012. "Credit Supply and Monetary Policy: Identifying the Bank Balance-Sheet Channel with Loan Applications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(5), pages 2301-2326, August.
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    13. Tsai, Ming-Shann & Liao, Szu-Lang & Chiang, Shu-Ling, 2009. "Analyzing yield, duration and convexity of mortgage loans under prepayment and default risks," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 92-103, June.
    14. Victor Chernozhukov & Christian Hansen, 2005. "An IV Model of Quantile Treatment Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(1), pages 245-261, January.
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    16. Victor Chernozhukov & Christian Hansen, 2004. "The Effects of 401(K) Participation on the Wealth Distribution: An Instrumental Quantile Regression Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 735-751, August.
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    19. Gabriel Jiménez & Atif Mian & José-Luis Peydró & Jesús Saurina, 2011. "Local versus aggregate lending channels: the effects of securitization on corporate credit supply," Working Papers 1124, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bracke, Philippe & Hilber, Christian A.L. & Silva, Olmo, 2018. "Mortgage debt and entrepreneurship," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 52-66.
    2. Ozlem Akin & José Montalvo & Jaume García Villar & José-Luis Peydró & Josep Raya, 2014. "The real estate and credit bubble: evidence from Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 223-243, August.
    3. Eckley, Peter & Benetton, Matteo & Latsi, Georgia & Garbarino, Nicola & Kirwin, Liam, 2017. "Specialisation in mortgage risk under Basel II," Bank of England working papers 639, Bank of England.
    4. Cloyne, James & Ferreira, Clodomiro & Surico, Paolo, 2015. "Monetary Policy when Households have Debt: New Evidence on the Transmission Mechanism," CEPR Discussion Papers 11023, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Philippe Bracke & Christian Hilber & Olmo Silva, 2012. "Homeownerhip and Entrepreneurship," SERC Discussion Papers 0103, Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE.
    6. James Cloyne & Clodomiro Ferreira & Paolo Surico, 2018. "Monetary policy when households have debt: new evidence on the transmission mechanism," Working Papers 1813, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    individual mortgage data; credit supply; risk pricing; heterogeneous effects; instrumental variable.;

    JEL classification:

    • D10 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - General
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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