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The Second Era of Globalization is Not Yet Over: An Historical Perspective

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  • Michael D. Bordo

Abstract

The recent rise of populist anti-globalization political movements has led to concerns that the current wave of globalization that goes back to the 1870s may end in turmoil just like the first wave which ended after World War I. It is too soon to tell. The decline and then levelling off of trade and capital flows in recent years reflects the drastic decline in global real income during the Great Recession. Other factors at work include the slowing down in the growth rate of China and the reversal of the extended international supply chains developed in the 1990s, as well as increased financial regulation across the world after the crisis. This suggests either a pause in the pace of integration or more likely a slowing down, rather than a reversal.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael D. Bordo, 2017. "The Second Era of Globalization is Not Yet Over: An Historical Perspective," NBER Working Papers 23786, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23786 Note: DAE ME
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson & Kaveh Majlesi, 2016. "Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure," NBER Working Papers 22637, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2017. "Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(1), pages 213-263.
    3. Michel Fouquin & Jules Hugot, 2016. "Two Centuries of Bilateral Trade and Gravity data: 1827-2014," VNIVERSITAS ECONÓMICA 015129, UNIVERSIDAD JAVERIANA - BOGOTÁ.
    4. Bordo, Michael D. & Rockoff, Hugh, 1996. "The Gold Standard as a “Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval”," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(02), pages 389-428, June.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F6 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization
    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations

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