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Institutions, Household Credit Composition, And The Business Cycle

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  • Berrak Bahadir
  • Neven Valev

Abstract

We show that the negative effect of household credit growth on subsequent economic growth documented in the recent literature is not the same across countries. The effect is stronger in countries with weak institutions where the fraction of consumer credit in total household credit is greater. That is an important nuance as consumer credit is a sizable part of household credit in many emerging markets and its rapid buildup should be observed with the same caution as a rapid buildup in housing credit. (JEL G21, E32, E44)

Suggested Citation

  • Berrak Bahadir & Neven Valev, 2020. "Institutions, Household Credit Composition, And The Business Cycle," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(3), pages 1401-1413, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecinqu:v:58:y:2020:i:3:p:1401-1413
    DOI: 10.1111/ecin.12885
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Beck Thorsten & Büyükkarabacak Berrak & Rioja Felix K. & Valev Neven T., 2012. "Who Gets the Credit? And Does It Matter? Household vs. Firm Lending Across Countries," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-46, March.
    2. Hiebert, Paul & Jaccard, Ivan & Schüler, Yves, 2018. "Contrasting financial and business cycles: Stylized facts and candidate explanations," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 72-80.
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    5. Susan Black & Tom Cusbert, 2010. "Durable Goods and the Business Cycle," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 11-18, September.
    6. Brown, Martin & Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 2009. "Information sharing and credit: Firm-level evidence from transition countries," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 151-172, April.
    7. Barroso, João Barata Ribeiro Blanco & Silva, Thiago Christiano & Souza, Sergio Rubens Stancato de, 2018. "Identifying systemic risk drivers in financial networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 503(C), pages 650-674.
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    Cited by:

    1. Berrak Bahadir & Dora Gicheva, 2022. "Macroeconomic Implications of Student Debt: A State‐Level Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(8), pages 2273-2300, December.
    2. Can Xu & Jan P. A. M. Jacobs & Jakob de Haan, 2023. "Does Household Borrowing Reduce the Trade Balance? Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 759-787, September.
    3. Oguzhan Cepni & Yavuz Selim Hacihasanoglu & Muhammed Hasan Yilmaz, 2020. "Credit decomposition and economic activity in Turkey: A wavelet-based approach," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 20(3), pages 109-131.
    4. Madeira, Carlos, 2021. "The potential impact of financial portability measures on mortgage refinancing: Evidence from Chile," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    5. Vieira, Flávio Vilela & Silva, Cleomar Gomes da, 2023. "Looking for asymmetries between credit and output in the BRICS countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 39-52.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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