A Tale Of Two Cycles In Developing And Advanced Economies: A Country Case Study Comparison
This research aims at performing an econometric analysis on the credit cycle and business cycle from a comparative perspective, with a focus on ten developing and advanced economies from the area of Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe, in order to better understand their behaviour and the impact of the interactions between them. To achieve this aim, the study focuses on two strategic objectives: a) on the one hand, it analyzes the short-term dynamics (from one quarter to the other) of the relationships between credit expansion and economic growth in order to better grasp which variable influences the other; and b) on the other hand, the research investigates the cyclical components of the data sets (after extracting them from the real GDP and the total volume of credits given by the banking system to the non-governmental sector), i.e. it performs statistical analysis on the medium-term relationships between the business cycle and the credit cycle for each of the ten European economies. The findings revealed in the first phase of the investigation that we cannot speak of a relation of unidirectional causality between credit expansion and economic growth across countries (not even across geographical regions). In Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania and Slovenia, economic growth had an important influence over the crediting activity, thus â€œguidingâ€ it, whereas in the case of Poland, Romania and Slovakia, Granger-type causality relations were registered from the crediting expansion process towards economic growth. The second part of the investigation revealed that sometimes the credit cycle seems to be independent from the business cycle, manifesting an amplitude, a synchronicity and a volatility that is different from and superior to that of business cycle in all the analyzed countries (â€œhaving a mind of its ownâ€ ). Moreover, there is evidence of important spill-over effects of the credit activity across banking systems at national and regional level thus confirming the international feature of the credit cycle.
Volume (Year): 1 (2013)
Issue (Month): 2 (December)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Universitatii str. 1, Office F209, 410087 Oradea, Bihor|
Fax: 004 0259 408409
Web page: http://anale.steconomiceuoradea.ro/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Chen, Nan-Kuang, 2001. "Bank net worth, asset prices and economic activity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 415-436, October.
- Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999.
"Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
- Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995. "Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "BKFILTER: RATS procedure to implement band pass filter using Baxter-King method," Statistical Software Components RTS00026, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-248, April.
- John Moore & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, "undated". "Credit Cycles," Discussion Papers 1995-5, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
- Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & John Moore, 1995. "Credit Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ryo Kato, 2003. "Matlab code for Kiyotaki-Moore credit cycles," QM&RBC Codes 113, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Ross Levine & Norman Loayza & Thorsten Beck, 2002. "Financial Intermediation and Growth: Causality and Causes," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Leonardo Hernández & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.), Banking, Financial Integration, and International Crises, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 2, pages 031-084 Central Bank of Chile.
- Levine, Ross & Loayza, Norman & Beck, Thorsten, 2000. "Financial intermediation and growth: Causality and causes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 31-77, August.
- Levine, Ross & Loayza, Norman & Beck, Thorsten, 1999. "Financial intermediation and growth : Causality and causes," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2059, The World Bank.
- Thorsten Beck & Ross Levine & Norman Loayza, 1999. "Financial Intermediation and Growth: Causality and Causes," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 56, Central Bank of Chile.
- Michael B. Devereux & James Yetman, 2010. "Leverage Constraints and the International Transmission of Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 71-105, 09.
- Michael B Devereux & James Yetman, 2009. "Leverage Constraints and the International Transmission of Shocks," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2009-08, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Michael B. Devereux & James Yetman, 2010. "Leverage Constraints and the International Transmission of Shocks," Working Papers 132010, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- Devereux, Michael B., 2010. "Leverage constraints and the international transmission of shocks," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 45, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Michael B. Devereux & James Yetman, 2010. "Leverage Constraints and the International Transmission of Shocks," NBER Working Papers 16226, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James Yetman & Michael B. Devereux, 2010. "leverage constraints and the international transmission of shocks," 2010 Meeting Papers 1341, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," NBER Working Papers 5146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Working Papers 95-15, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Gertler, Mark & Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, 2010. "Financial Intermediation and Credit Policy in Business Cycle Analysis," Handbook of Monetary Economics,in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 11, pages 547-599 Elsevier. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ora:journl:v:1:y:2013:i:2:p:440-450. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Catalin ZMOLE)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.