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How we missed the inflation surge: An anatomy of post‐2020 inflation forecast errors

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  • Christoffer Koch
  • Diaa Noureldin

Abstract

This paper analyzes the inflation forecast errors over the period 2021Q1–2022Q3 using forecasts of core and headline inflation from the International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook for a large group of advanced and emerging market economies. The findings reveal evidence of forecast bias that worsened initially and then subsided towards the end of the sample. There is also evidence of forecast oversmoothing, indicating rigidity in forecast revision in the face of incoming information. Focusing on core inflation forecast errors in 2021, four factors provide a potential ex post explanation: a stronger‐than‐anticipated demand recovery; demand‐induced pressures on supply chains; the demand shift from services to goods at the onset of the pandemic; and labor market tightness. Ex ante, we find that the size of the COVID‐19 fiscal stimulus packages announced by different governments in 2020 correlates positively with core inflation forecast errors in advanced economies. This result hints at potential forecast inefficiency, but we caution that it hinges on the outcomes of a few, albeit large, economies.

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  • Christoffer Koch & Diaa Noureldin, 2024. "How we missed the inflation surge: An anatomy of post‐2020 inflation forecast errors," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(4), pages 852-870, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:43:y:2024:i:4:p:852-870
    DOI: 10.1002/for.3088
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    1. Mortensen, Dale T. & Pissarides, Christopher A., 1999. "Job reallocation, employment fluctuations and unemployment," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 18, pages 1171-1228, Elsevier.
    2. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2016. "The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(590), pages 219-255, February.
    3. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(8), pages 2644-2678, August.
    4. Jason Furman, 2022. "Why Did (Almost) No One See the Inflation Coming?," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 57(2), pages 79-86, March.
    5. Nordhaus, William D, 1987. "Forecasting Efficiency: Concepts and Applications," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(4), pages 667-674, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ascari, Guido & Grazzini, Jakob & Massaro, Domenico, 2024. "Great Layoff, Great Retirement and Post-pandemic Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 19068, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Mr. Anil Ari & Mr. Carlos Mulas-Granados & Mr. Victor Mylonas & Mr. Lev Ratnovski & Wei Zhao, 2023. "One Hundred Inflation Shocks: Seven Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 2023/190, International Monetary Fund.

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