IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Government spending shocks, sovereign risk and the exchange rate regime

  • Jasper Lukkezen


  • Dennis Bonam (VU en Tinbergen)
Registered author(s):

    Keynesian theory predicts output responses upon a fiscal expansion in a small open economy to be larger under fixed than under floating exchange rates. We analyse the effects of fiscal expansions using a New Keynesian model and find that the reverse holds in the presence of sovereign default risk. By raising sovereign risk, a fiscal expansion worsens private credit conditions and reduces consumption; these adverse effects are offset by exchange-rate depreciation and a rise in exports under a float, yet not under a peg. We find that output responses can even be negative when exchange rates are held fixed, suggesting the possibility of expansionary fiscal consolidations.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis in its series CPB Discussion Paper with number 263.

    in new window

    Date of creation: Jan 2014
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:cpb:discus:263
    Contact details of provider: Postal:
    Postbus 80510, 2508 GM Den Haag

    Phone: (070) 338 33 80
    Fax: (070) 338 33 50
    Web page:

    More information through EDIRC

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Coenen, Günter & Mohr, Matthias & Straub, Roland, 2008. "Fiscal consolidation in the euro area: Long-run benefits and short-run costs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 912-932, September.
    2. Davig, Troy & Leeper, Eric M. & Walker, Todd B., 2010. ""Unfunded liabilities" and uncertain fiscal financing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(5), pages 600-619, July.
    3. Valerie De Bruyckere & Maria Gerhardt & Glenn Schepens & Rudi Vander Vennet, 2012. "Bank/sovereign risk spillovers in the European debt crisis," Working Paper Research 232, National Bank of Belgium.
    4. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2011. "Fiscal Multipliers in Recession and Expansion," NBER Working Papers 17447, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2002. "Long-Term Capital Movements," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 73-136 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Shafik Hebous, 2011. "The Effects Of Discretionary Fiscal Policy On Macroeconomic Aggregates: A Reappraisal," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 674-707, 09.
    7. Giancarlo Corsetti & Keith Kuester & Gernot J. Müller, 2011. "Floats, Pegs and the Transmission of Fiscal Policy," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 14(2), pages 5-38, August.
    8. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2001. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," Departmental Working Papers 200115, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    9. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2003. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 11, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    10. Andreas Schabert & Sweder J.G. van Wijnbergen, 2011. "Sovereign Default and the Stability of Inflation Targeting Regimes," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-064/2/ DSF20, Tinbergen Institute.
    11. Francesco Caselli, 1998. "Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service; Some Estimates for OECD Countries," IMF Working Papers 98/55, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Sutherland, Alan, 1997. "Fiscal crises and aggregate demand: can high public debt reverse the effects of fiscal policy?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 147-162, August.
    13. Ugo Albertazzi & Tiziano Ropele & Gabriele Sene & Federico M. Signoretti, 2012. "The impact of the sovereign debt crisis on the activity of Italian banks," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 133, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    14. Durbin, Erik & Ng, David T.C., 2002. "The Sovereign Ceiling and Emerging Market Corporate Bond Spreads," Working Papers 127286, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    15. Demirgüc-Kunt, A. & Huizinga, H.P., 2010. "Are Banks Too Big to Fail or Too Big to Save? International Evidence from Equity Prices and CDS Spreads," Discussion Paper 2010-59, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    16. Born, Benjamin & Juessen, Falko & Müller, Gernot, 2012. "Exchange rate regimes and fiscal multipliers," CEPR Discussion Papers 8986, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Hafedh Bouakez & Aurélien Eyquem, 2012. "Government Spending, Monetary Policy, and the Real Exchange Rate," Cahiers de recherche 1212, CIRPEE.
    18. Ardagna, Silvia & Alesina, Alberto, 1998. "Tales of Fiscal Adjustment," Scholarly Articles 2579822, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    19. Daniel Leigh & Andrea Pescatori & Jaime Guajardo, 2011. "Expansionary Austerity New International Evidence," IMF Working Papers 11/158, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    21. Paul De Grauwe, 2012. "The Governance of a Fragile Eurozone," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 45(3), pages 255-268, 09.
    22. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 1998. "Tales of fiscal adjustment," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 13(27), pages 487-545, October.
    23. repec:usg:wajohr:2012 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Günter Coenen & Christopher J. Erceg & Charles Freedman & Davide Furceri & Michael Kumhof & René Lalonde & Douglas Laxton & Jesper Lindé & Annabelle Mourougane & Dirk Muir & Susanna Mursula & Carlos d, 2012. "Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 22-68, January.
    25. Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpb:discus:263. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.