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Government Spending, Monetary Policy, and the Real Exchange Rate

  • Hafedh Bouakez

    ()

    (HEC Montréal and CIRPÉE, 3000 chemin de la Côte-Sainte-Catherine, Montréal, Québec, Canada H3T 2A7.)

  • Aurélien Eyquem

    ()

    (Université de Lyon, Lyon, F-69007, France ; Ecole Normale Supérieure de Lyon, Lyon, F-69007, France ; CNRS, GATE Lyon St Etienne, Ecully, F-69130, France ; and GREDI, Canada)

A robust prediction across a wide range of open-economy macroeconomic models is that an unanticipated increase in public spending in a given country appreciates it currency in real terms. This result, however, contradicts the findings of a number of recent empirical studies, which instead document a significant and persistent depreciation of the real exchange rate following an expansionary government spending shock. In this paper, we rationalize the findings of the empirical literature by proposing a small-open-economy model that features three key ingredients : incomplete and imperfect international financial markets, sticky prices, and a not-too-aggressive monetary policy. The model predicts that in response to an unexpected increase in public expenditures, the risk-adjusted long-term real interest rate falls, causing the real exchange rate to depreciate. We establish this result both analytically, within a special version of the model, and numerically for the more general case.

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Paper provided by Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique (GATE), Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), Université Lyon 2, Ecole Normale Supérieure in its series Working Papers with number 1139.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:gat:wpaper:1139
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