IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/halshs-01080981.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Government Spending, Monetary Policy, and the Real Exchange Rate

Author

Listed:
  • Hafedh Bouakez

    (CIRPEE - Centre interuniversitaire sur le risque, les politiques économiques et l'emploi - Centre Interuniversitaire sur le Risque, les Politiques Economiques et l'Emploi, HEC Montréal - HEC Montréal)

  • Aurélien Eyquem

    (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon - Saint-Etienne - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Both the traditional Mundell-Fleming-Dornbusch framework and standard dynamic general-equilibrium models with complete financial markets predict that an unanticipated increase in public spending in a given country appreciates its currency in real terms. This prediction, however, contradicts the findings of a number of recent empirical studies, which instead document a significant and persistent depreciation of the real exchange rate following an expansionary government spending shock. In this paper, we rationalize the findings of the empirical literature by proposing a small-open-economy model that features three key ingredients: incomplete and imperfect international financial markets, sticky prices, and a not-too-aggressive monetary policy. The model predicts that in response to an unexpected increase in public expenditure, the long-term real interest rate rises less than the country's debt elastic interest-rate premium. As a result, the long-term real interest rate differential vis-a-vis the rest of the world falls, leading the domestic currency to depreciate in real terms. We establish this result both analytically, within a special version of the model, and numerically for the more general case.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Hafedh Bouakez & Aurélien Eyquem, 2015. "Government Spending, Monetary Policy, and the Real Exchange Rate," Post-Print halshs-01080981, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01080981
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2014.09.010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
    2. Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio, 2002. "Financial autarky and international business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 601-627, April.
    3. Michael B. Devereux & Philip R. Lane & Juanyi Xu, 2006. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy in Emerging Market Economies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(511), pages 478-506, April.
    4. Feenstra, Robert C, 1994. "New Product Varieties and the Measurement of International Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 157-177, March.
    5. Bouakez, Hafedh & Rebei, Nooman, 2008. "Has exchange rate pass-through really declined? Evidence from Canada," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 249-267, July.
    6. Ben S. Bernanke & Julio J. Rotemberg (ed.), 1997. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026252242x, December.
    7. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2005. "Comparing shocks and frictions in US and euro area business cycles: a Bayesian DSGE Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 161-183.
    8. Ravn, Morten & Uribe, Martín & Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie, 2007. "Explaining the Effects of Government Spending Shocks on Consumption and the Real Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 6541, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot J. & Scholl, Almuth, 2011. "How do fiscal and technology shocks affect real exchange rates?: New evidence for the United States," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 53-69, January.
    10. St?phane Auray & Aur?lien Eyquem, 2014. "Welfare Reversals in a Monetary Union," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 246-290, October.
    11. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2006. "Globalization and the Gains From Variety," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 121(2), pages 541-585.
    12. Giancarlo Corsetti & Gernot J. Müller, 2006. "Twin deficits: squaring theory, evidence and common sense [‘Temporary and permanent government spending in an open economy: some evidence for the United Kingdom’]," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(48), pages 598-638.
    13. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
    14. Roberto Perotti, 2005. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    15. Russell W. Cooper & John C. Haltiwanger, 2006. "On the Nature of Capital Adjustment Costs," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(3), pages 611-633.
    16. Müller, Gernot J., 2008. "Understanding the dynamic effects of government spending on foreign trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 345-371, April.
    17. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    18. Bi, Huixin, 2012. "Sovereign default risk premia, fiscal limits, and fiscal policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 389-410.
    19. repec:fth:nystbu:92-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Hafedh Bouakez & Nooman Rebei, 2007. "Why does private consumption rise after a government spending shock?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 40(3), pages 954-979, August.
    21. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler & J. David López-Salido, 2007. "Markups, Gaps, and the Welfare Costs of Business Fluctuations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 44-59, November.
    22. Tommaso Monacelli & Roberto Perotti, 2010. "Fiscal Policy, the Real Exchange Rate and Traded Goods," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(544), pages 437-461, May.
    23. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1992. "Dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade: the J-curve revisited," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 65, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    24. Merz, Monika, 1995. "Search in the labor market and the real business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 269-300, November.
    25. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2002. "Long-Term Capital Movements," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 73-136, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Paul R. Bergin, 2017. "How Well Can the New Open Economy Macroeconomics Explain the Exchange Rate and Current Account?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: International Macroeconomic Interdependence, chapter 5, pages 117-152, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    28. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2008. "Twin deficit or twin divergence? Fiscal policy, current account, and real exchange rate in the U.S," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 362-383, March.
    29. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1994. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 84-103, March.
    30. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1993. "International business cycles: theory vs. evidence," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 17(Fall), pages 14-29.
    31. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
    32. Cristina Arellano, 2008. "Default Risk and Income Fluctuations in Emerging Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 690-712, June.
    33. Robert C. Feenstra & Philip Luck & Maurice Obstfeld & Katheryn N. Russ, 2018. "In Search of the Armington Elasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(1), pages 135-150, March.
    34. Kollmann, Robert, 2002. "Monetary policy rules in the open economy: effects on welfare and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 989-1015, July.
    35. Parantap Basu & Robert Kollmann, 2013. "Productive Government Purchases And The Real Exchange Rate," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81(4), pages 461-469, July.
    36. John Romalis, 2007. "NAFTA's and CUSFTA's Impact on International Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(3), pages 416-435, August.
    37. Robert Kollmann, 2010. "Government Purchases and the Real Exchange Rate," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 49-64, February.
    38. Perotti, Roberto, 2005. "Estimating the Effects of Fiscal Policy in OECD Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 4842, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    39. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Raf, 2002. "Openness, imperfect exchange rate pass-through and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 947-981, July.
    40. David Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1993. "International Business Cycles: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 4493, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    41. Bouakez, Hafedh & Chihi, Foued & Normandin, Michel, 2014. "Fiscal policy and external adjustment: New evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-20.
    42. Edwards, Sebastian, 1984. "LDC Foreign Borrowing and Default Risk: An Empirical Investigation, 1976-80," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(4), pages 726-734, September.
    43. Kim J. Ruhl, 2008. "The International Elasticity Puzzle," Working Papers 08-30, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    44. Bernhardsen, Tom, 2000. "The relationship between interest rate differentials and macroeconomic variables: a panel data study for European countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 289-308, April.
    45. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1991. "Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 797-818, September.
    46. Abdelhak S. Senhadji, 2003. "External Shocks and Debt Accumulation in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(1), pages 207-239, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    2. Stéphane Auray & Aurélien Eyquem & Paul Gomme, 2016. "A Tale Of Tax Policies In Open Economies," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1299-1333, November.
    3. Miyamoto, Wataru & Nguyen, Thuy Lan & Sheremirov, Viacheslav, 2019. "The effects of government spending on real exchange rates: Evidence from military spending panel data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 144-157.
    4. Ibrahim K. Sule and Mohammed Shuaibu, 2020. "Current Account Behavior, Real Exchange Rate Adjustment and Relative Output in Nigeria," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 45(3), pages 77-99, September.
    5. Andrea Salazar-Díaz & Aarón Levi Garavito-Acosta & Sergio Restrepo Ángel & Leidy Viviana Arcila-Agudelo, 2023. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate in Colombia: Thousands of VEC Models Approach," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 99, pages 33-78, July-Dece.
    6. Marie-Pierre HORY & Grégory LEVIEUGE & Daria ONORI, 2018. "The (low) fiscal multiplier when debt is denominated in foreign currency," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2583, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    7. Hory, Marie-Pierre & Levieuge, Grégory & Onori, Daria, 2021. "Public spending, currency mismatch and financial frictions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    8. Dennis Bonam & Jasper Lukkezen, 2013. "Government Spending Shocks, Sovereign Risk and the Exchange Rate Regime," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-212/VI, Tinbergen Institute, revised 09 Jan 2013.
    9. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: A survey," CAMA Working Papers 2017-76, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    10. Azad, Nahiyan Faisal & Serletis, Apostolos & Xu, Libo, 2021. "Covid-19 and monetary–fiscal policy interactions in Canada," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 376-384.
    11. Diana Barros, Aurora A.C. Teixeira, 2021. "The technology balance of payments and international competitiveness: a panel data analysis of southern European countries, 2000-2017," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 18(1), pages 105-136, June.
    12. Dennis Bonam & Jasper Lukkezen, 2013. "Government Spending Shocks, Sovereign Risk and the Exchange Rate Regime," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-212/VI, Tinbergen Institute, revised 09 Jan 2013.
    13. Ferdinand Owoundi & Jacques Landry Bikai, 2021. "On the neutrality of the exchange rate regime regarding real misalignments: Evidence from sub‐Saharan Africa," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 327-345, July.
    14. Kim, Soyoung, 2015. "Country characteristics and the effects of government consumption shocks on the current account and real exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 436-447.
    15. Matteo Cacciatore & Nora Traum, 2022. "Trade Flows and Fiscal Multipliers," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(6), pages 1206-1223, November.
    16. Mwankemwa, Lusajo P. & Ndanshau, Michael O.A., 2021. "Asymmetric Effects of Fiscal Deficit on Monetary Policy Transmission in Tanzania," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 9(4), September.
    17. Di Giorgio, Giorgio & Nisticò, Salvatore & Traficante, Guido, 2018. "Government spending and the exchange rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 55-73.
    18. Gnocchi, Stefano & Hauser, Daniela & Pappa, Evi, 2016. "Housework and fiscal expansions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 94-108.
    19. Rose Cunningham & Christian Friedrich & Kristina Hess & Min Jae Kim, 2017. "Understanding the Time Variation in Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Import Prices," Discussion Papers 17-12, Bank of Canada.
    20. Ramona Tiganasu & Gabriela Carmen Pascariu & Dan Lupu, 2022. "Competitiveness, fiscal policy and corruption: evidence from Central and Eastern European countries," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 13(3), pages 667-698, September.
    21. Xi Wang & Jiayang Li & Guangbin Zhang, 2022. "Mixed Monetary–Fiscal Policies and Macroeconomic Fluctuations: An Analysis Based on the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 30(2), pages 167-196, March.
    22. Ngan Tran, 2019. "Asymmetric effects of fiscal balance on monetary variables: evidence from large emerging economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 1045-1076, September.
    23. Leanghak Hok, 2020. "Competitiveness and government spending in Cambodia: An autoregressive distributed lag approach," Theory Methodology Practice (TMP), Faculty of Economics, University of Miskolc, vol. 16(02), pages 27-40.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot J. & Scholl, Almuth, 2011. "How do fiscal and technology shocks affect real exchange rates?: New evidence for the United States," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 53-69, January.
    2. Saeidinezhad, Elham, 2014. "The International Spillover of Fiscal and Technology Shocks before the Crisis: The case of the UK and Italy," MPRA Paper 98556, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. D. Siena, 2014. "The European Monetary Union and Imbalances: Is it an Anticipation Story ?," Working papers 501, Banque de France.
    4. Marco Riguzzi & Philipp Wegmueller, 2017. "Economic Openness and Fiscal Multipliers," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 1-35, January.
    5. Shafik Hebous, 2011. "The Effects Of Discretionary Fiscal Policy On Macroeconomic Aggregates: A Reappraisal," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 674-707, September.
    6. Cwik, Tobias & Müller, Gernot J. & Wolters, Maik H., 2011. "Does trade integration alter monetary policy transmission?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 545-564, April.
    7. Ghironi, Fabio, 2008. "The role of net foreign assets in a New Keynesian small open economy model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1780-1811, June.
    8. Di Giorgio, Giorgio & Nisticò, Salvatore & Traficante, Guido, 2018. "Government spending and the exchange rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 55-73.
    9. Giancarlo Corsetti & André Meier & Gernot J. Müller, 2012. "What determines government spending multipliers? [Mafia and public spending: Evidence of the fiscal multiplier from a quasi-experiment’, mimeo]," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 27(72), pages 521-565.
    10. Müller, Gernot J., 2008. "Understanding the dynamic effects of government spending on foreign trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 345-371, April.
    11. Cardi, Olivier & Müller, Gernot J., 2011. "Habit formation and fiscal transmission in open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 256-267.
    12. Jesper Lindé & Marianne Nessén & Ulf Söderström, 2009. "Monetary policy in an estimated open-economy model with imperfect pass-through," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 301-333.
    13. Ferrara, Laurent & Metelli, Luca & Natoli, Filippo & Siena, Daniele, 2021. "Questioning the puzzle: Fiscal policy, real exchange rate and inflation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    14. Marie-Pierre HORY & Grégory LEVIEUGE & Daria ONORI, 2018. "The (low) fiscal multiplier when debt is denominated in foreign currency," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2583, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    15. Hirata, Hideaki, 2014. "Preference shocks, international frictions, and international business cycles," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 92-104.
    16. Cavallo, Michele & Ghironi, Fabio, 2002. "Net foreign assets and the exchange rate: Redux revived," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 1057-1097, July.
    17. Laurent Ferrara & Luca Metelli & Filippo Natoli & Daniele Siena, 2020. "Questioning the puzzle: Fiscal policy, exchange rate and inflation," Working papers 752, Banque de France.
    18. Hamza Ali Malik, 2006. "Monetary-Exchange Rate Policy and Current Account Dynamics," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 2, pages 23-57.
    19. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2017. "Unifying Macro Elasticities in International Economics," Globalization Institute Working Papers 299, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    20. Etro, Federico, 2017. "Research in economics and macroeconomics," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 373-383.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real exchange rate; public spending shocks; small open economy; sticky prices; monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01080981. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.