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The Impact of Fiscal Consolidations on Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Francisco Arizala
  • Mr. Jesus R Gonzalez-Garcia
  • Mr. Charalambos G Tsangarides
  • Mustafa Yenice

Abstract

This paper examines the output effects of changes in public expenditure and revenue in sub-Saharan African countries during 1990–2016. Fiscal multipliers in sub-Saharan Africa are somewhat smaller than those in advanced and emerging economies. The effect of changes in fiscal policy on output depends on the composition: cutting public investment has a larger effect on output than cutting public consumption or raising revenue. Episodes of fiscal consolidation have short- and medium-term output effects, but here, too, composition matters: fiscal consolidations based on reducing public investment have the largest effect on output, while fiscal consolidations based on revenue mobilization are less harmful than those based on public investment cuts. These findings suggest that the negative impact on growth can be mitigated through the design of fiscal adjustment and the accompanying policy environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Francisco Arizala & Mr. Jesus R Gonzalez-Garcia & Mr. Charalambos G Tsangarides & Mustafa Yenice, 2017. "The Impact of Fiscal Consolidations on Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 2017/281, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2017/281
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    Cited by:

    1. Philippe Burger & Estian Calitz, 2019. "Sustainable fiscal policy and economic growth in South Africa," Working Papers 15/2019, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    2. Serena Merrino, 2021. "State-dependent fiscal multipliers and financial dynamics: An impulse response analysis by local projections for South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2021-77, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Makrelov, Konstantin & Arndt, Channing & Davies, Rob & Harris, Laurence, 2020. "Balance sheet changes and the impact of financial sector risk-taking on fiscal multipliers," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 322-343.
    4. Miaomiao Tao & Jamel Saadaoui & Emilson Silva, 2025. "How Robust Is the Link Between Growth and Fiscal Consolidations Amid Uncertainties? A Reassessment for Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers 2025.7, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    5. Francois, John Nana & Keinsley, Andrew, 2019. "The long-run relationship between public consumption and output in developing countries: Evidence from panel data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 96-99.
    6. Ribeiro, Ana Paula & Carvalho, Vitor & Sanches, Hélder, 2021. "Debt dynamics and fiscal policy stance in Cape Verde: Is there evidence of pro-cyclical behavior?," MPRA Paper 111305, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Philippe Burger & Estian Calitz, 2021. "Covid‐19, Economic Growth and South African Fiscal Policy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 89(1), pages 3-24, March.
    8. Bechchani, Khalil, 2025. "Austerity reexamined: Uncovering the role of the shadow economy," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 1291-1317.
    9. Zhang, Yunhan & Liu, Zhixin & Jin, Hao, 2025. "The domestic and spillover effects of fiscal consolidation: The role of fiscal instruments, exchange rate regimes, and capital controls," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    10. Thibault Lemaire, 2020. "Fiscal Consolidations and Informality in Latin America and the Caribbean," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 20004, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    11. Serena Merrino, 2021. "Statedependent fiscal multipliers and financial dynamics An impulse response analysis by local projections for South Africa," Working Papers 11015, South African Reserve Bank.
    12. Dawood, Taufiq Carnegie & Francois, John Nana, 2018. "Substitution between private and government consumption in African economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 129-139.
    13. Badru, Ruth & Calef, Andrea & Ilori, Ayobami E. & Omoju, Oluwasola E., 2025. "Fiscal consolidation and asymmetric macroeconomic effects: Evidence from Sub-Saharan African countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    14. Impawe Augustin, 2019. "Public Consumption and Income in the Long Run: A Panel Data Study for Central African Countries," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(6), pages 101-101, June.
    15. Gabriel Temesgen Woldu, 2023. "The asymmetric effect of fiscal policy on private consumption and private investment over a business cycle: Evidence from Sub‐Saharan African countries," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(6), pages 1147-1162, August.
    16. Bantyergu Engida Bati, 2025. "Determinants of Ethiopian banking sector development: a 30-year empirical analysis with ARDL model," Journal of Innovation and Entrepreneurship, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 1-21, December.
    17. Woldu, Gabriel Temesgen & Szakálné Kanó, Izabella, 2023. "Macroeconomic effects of fiscal consolidation on economic activity in SSA countries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    18. Sayed O. M. Timuno & Joel Hinaunye Eita & Lanouar Charfeddine, 2020. "Towards an effective fiscal stimulus: Evidence from Botswana," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 1790948-179, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General

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