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The aggregate and country-speci c e ectiveness of ECB policy: evidence from an external instruments (VAR) approach

Author

Listed:
  • Lucas Hafemann

    () (Justus-Liebig-University Giessen)

  • Peter Tillmann

    () (Justus-Liebig-University Giessen)

Abstract

This paper studies the transmission of ECB monetary policy, both at the aggregate euro area and the country level. We estimate a VAR model for the euro area in which monetary policy shocks are identified using an external instrument that refl ects policy surprises. For that purpose we use the change in German bunds at meeting days of the Governing Council. The identified monetary policy shock is then put into country-specific local projections in order to derive country-specific impulse responses. We find that (i) the transmission is very heterogeneous, both across channels and across countries, (ii) policy is transmitted through spreads, yields and the exchange rate, but less through banks and the stock market, and (iii) the strength of the transmission depends on structural characteristics of member countries, among them are current account balanced, debt to GDP levels, and the strength of banking systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucas Hafemann & Peter Tillmann, 2017. "The aggregate and country-speci c e ectiveness of ECB policy: evidence from an external instruments (VAR) approach," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201720, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    • Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:201720
    as

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    File URL: https://www.uni-marburg.de/fb02/makro/forschung/magkspapers/paper_2017/20-2017_hafemann.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael Hachula & Michele Piffer & Malte Rieth, 2016. "Unconventional Monetary Policy, Fiscal Side Effects and Euro Area (Im)balances," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1596, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Breckenfelder, Johannes & De Fiore, Fiorella & Andrade, Philippe & Karadi, Peter & Tristani, Oreste, 2016. "The ECB's asset purchase programme: an early assessment," Working Paper Series 1956, European Central Bank.
    3. Jef Boeckx & Maarten Dossche & Gert Peersman, 2017. "Effectiveness and Transmission of the ECB's Balance Sheet Policies," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(1), pages 297-333, February.
    4. Stock, James H & Wright, Jonathan H & Yogo, Motohiro, 2002. "A Survey of Weak Instruments and Weak Identification in Generalized Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 518-529, October.
    5. Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & Gregory Thwaites & Alejandro Vicondoa, 2016. "Monetary Policy Transmission in an Open Economy: New Data and Evidence from the United Kingdom," Discussion Papers 1612, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), revised Aug 2016.
    6. repec:eee:eecrev:v:101:y:2018:i:c:p:210-229 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Nikolay Hristov & Oliver Hülsewig & Thomas Siemsen & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2014. "Smells Like Fiscal Policy? Assessing the Potential Effectiveness of the ECB's OMT Program," CESifo Working Paper Series 4628, CESifo Group Munich.
    8. Mark Gertler & Peter Karadi, 2015. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Credit Costs, and Economic Activity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 44-76, January.
    9. Martin T. Bohl & Pierre L. Siklos & David Sondermann, 2008. "European Stock Markets and the ECB's Monetary Policy Surprises," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(2), pages 117-130, August.
    10. Òscar Jordà, 2005. "Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 161-182, March.
    11. Francesco Zanetti & Wei Li, 2016. "The Effect of Monetary Policy Shocks in the United Kingdom: an External Instruments Approach," Economics Series Working Papers 812, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    12. Burriel, Pablo & Galesi, Alessandro, 2018. "Uncovering the heterogeneous effects of ECB unconventional monetary policies across euro area countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 210-229.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Euro area; VAR; external instrument; local projections; monetary transmission;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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