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The Aggregate and Country-Specific Effectiveness of ECB Policy: Evidence from an External Instruments (VAR) Approach

Author

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  • Lucas Hafemann
  • Peter Tillmann

Abstract

This paper studies the transmission of ECB monetary policy, both at the aggregate euro area and the country level. We estimate a VAR model for the euro area in which monetary policy shocks are identified using an external instrument that reflects policy surprises. For that purpose we use the change in German bunds at meeting days of the Governing Council. The identified monetary policy shock is then put into country-specific local projections in order to derive country-specific impulse responses. We find that (i) the transmission is very heterogeneous, both across channels and across countries, (ii) policy is transmitted through spreads, yields and the exchange rate, but less through banks and the stock market, and (iii) the strength of the transmission depends on structural characteristics of member countries, among them are current account balanced, debt to GDP levels, and the strength of banking systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucas Hafemann & Peter Tillmann, 2017. "The Aggregate and Country-Specific Effectiveness of ECB Policy: Evidence from an External Instruments (VAR) Approach," European Economy - Discussion Papers 2015 - 063, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    • Handle: RePEc:euf:dispap:063
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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