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Fiscal policy and public debt: Government investment is most effective to promote sustainability

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  • Ciaffi, Giovanna
  • Deleidi, Matteo
  • Di Domenico, Lorenzo

Abstract

This paper aims to quantify the effects of government expenditure and its components, i.e. government consumption and investment, on output and public debt sustainability. The Local Projections approach is applied to a dataset of 14 OECD countries considered for the 1981–2017 period. Fiscal policy shocks have been identified using the Blanchard and Perotti strategy and the narrative approach based on fiscal consolidation episodes. Multipliers of total government spending are above the unit and government investment multipliers are higher than consumption ones. Although all fiscal policy shocks reduce the public debt-to-GDP ratio, government investment is the most effective tool for promoting public debt sustainability.

Suggested Citation

  • Ciaffi, Giovanna & Deleidi, Matteo & Di Domenico, Lorenzo, 2024. "Fiscal policy and public debt: Government investment is most effective to promote sustainability," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 1186-1209.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:46:y:2024:i:6:p:1186-1209
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.002
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal multipliers; Public debt sustainability; Government consumption and investment; Local Projections; OECD Countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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