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Influenza pandemics and macroeconomic fluctuations 1871–2016

Author

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  • Fraser Summerfield

    (Department of Economics, St Francis Xavier University, Antigonish, NS, B2G 2W5, Canada)

  • Livio Di Matteo

    (Department of Economics, Lakehead University, 955 Oliver Road, Thunder Bay, ON, P7B5E1, Canada)

Abstract

This paper documents the short-run macroeconomic impacts of influenza pandemics across 16 countries spanning 1871–2016 using the Jordà–Schularick–Taylor Macrohistory Database and the Human Mortality Database. We find pandemic-induced mortality contributed meaningfully to business cycle fluctuations in the post 1870 era. We identify negative causal impacts on the cyclical component of GDP using pandemics to instrument for working-age mortality. The analysis of short-run economic outcomes extends literature dominated by long-run economic growth outcomes and case studies of several specific health shocks such as the Black Death, Spanish Flu or COVID-19. Our findings illustrate that less catastrophic pandemics still have important economic implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Fraser Summerfield & Livio Di Matteo, 2024. "Influenza pandemics and macroeconomic fluctuations 1871–2016," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 18(2), pages 405-451, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:afc:cliome:v:18:y:2024:i:2:p:405-451
    DOI: 10.1007/s11698-023-00269-w
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pandemics · Business cycles · Mortality · GDP fuctuations · Health shocks;

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N30 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - General, International, or Comparative

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