Plague and long-term development: the lasting effects of the 1629-30 epidemic on the Italian cities
The paper aims to analyze the effects of plague on the long-term development of Italian cities, with particular attention to the 1629-30 epidemic. By using a new dataset on plague mortality rates in 49 cities covering the period 1575-1700 ca., an economic geography model verifying the existence of multiple equilibria is estimated. It is found that cities affected only by the 1629-30 plague recovered in the short run, whereas cities affected by both the 1575-77 and 1629-30 epidemic show persistent decline in the long run. This new finding contrasts with previous literature and is hence interpreted in the light of the new concept of “urban frailty”. Keywords: Plague, Italian cities, Urban development, Urban demography, Multiple equilibria, Early modern period, Mortality crises.
|Date of creation:||2014|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: via Rontgen, 1 - 20136 Milano (Italy)|
Web page: http://www.igier.unibocconi.it/
|Order Information:|| Web: http://www.igier.unibocconi.it/en/papers/index.htm Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Alfani, Guido & Murphy, Tommy E., 2017. "Plague and Lethal Epidemics in the Pre-Industrial World," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 77(01), pages 314-343, March.
- Steven Brakman & Harry Garretsen & Marc Schramm, 2004.
"The strategic bombing of German cities during World War II and its impact on city growth,"
Journal of Economic Geography,
Oxford University Press, vol. 4(2), pages 201-218, April.
- Steven Brakman & Harry Garretsen & Marc Schramm, 2002. "The Strategic Bombing of German Cities during World War II and its Impact on City Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 808, CESifo Group Munich.
- Samuel Cohn, 2007. "After the Black Death: labour legislation and attitudes towards labour in late-medieval western Europe," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 60(3), pages 457-485, 08.
- Malanima, Paolo, 2005. "Urbanisation and the Italian economy during the last millennium," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(01), pages 97-122, April.
- Marco Percoco, 2014. "Path dependence, institutions and the density of economic activities: Evidence from Italian cities," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 93(1), pages 53-76, 03.
- Marco Percoco, 2010. "Path Dependence, Institutions and the Density of Economic Activities: Evidence from Italian Cities," Working Papers 2010.110, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Alfani, Guido, 2015. "Economic Inequality in Northwestern Italy: A Long-Term View (Fourteenth to Eighteenth Centuries)," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 75(04), pages 1058-1096, December.
- Guido Alfani, 2014. "Economic inequality in northwestern Italy: A long-term view (fourteenth to eighteenth centuries)," Working Papers 061, "Carlo F. Dondena" Centre for Research on Social Dynamics (DONDENA), Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi.
- Marco Percoco, 2012. "Entrepreneurship, Social Capital and Institutions: Evidence from Italy," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(3), pages 339-355, September.
- Guido Alfani, 2013. "Plague in seventeenth-century Europe and the decline of Italy: an epidemiological hypothesis," European Review of Economic History, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(4), pages 408-430, November.
- Guido Alfani, 2011. "Plague in Seventeenth Century Europe and the Decline of Italy: An Epidemiological Hypothesis," Working Papers 377, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:igi:igierp:508. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.